Philippine Retailing 2019 Q2 | Page 12

PHILIPPINE RETAILING Feature retailers in 2018 will continue to drive strong growth to 2023, with SM and Puregold set to retain their market-leading positions. 7-Eleven (Philippine Seven Corp) will see the fastest growth of all the retailers, driven by network expansion. Robinsons is set to retain its third-place position after the acquisition of Rustan’s Supercentres from Dairy Farm in 2018, while Metro is forecast to maintain strong growth via multi-format networks and ongoing geographical expansion. Large formats will continue to dominate the market, accounting for 22.2% of the market in 2023 – with the supermarket channel establishing itself as the main generator of sales and a market share of over 15.6%. Convenience is the fastest-growing physical store channel, driven by 7-Eleven and Alfamart continuing to open new stores and expand their footprints. Online: slow but steady With a CAGR of 8.9% over the next five years, the Philippines is the fifth-fastest growing grocery market in Asia, after Bangladesh, India, Vietnam and Pakistan. Jiong-Jiong Yu, Senior Retail Analyst at IGD Asia, outlines the market’s growth forecasts to 2023 By 2023, the grocery market in the Philippines market will have increased by 53.3% in value, from 2,780 PHP bn in 2018 to 4,293 PHP bn in 2023, driven by a booming population, strong domestic consumption and a buoyant economy. Traditional trade forms 75% of the grocery market in the Philippines and we forecast by 2023 it will still dominate the market, with a CAGR of 8%. However, we expect modern trade to grow faster and by 2023 to have increased its market share from 25% to 28%, fuelled by retailer expansion both within Metro Manila, as well as Visayas in the central and Mindanao in the southern parts of the archipelago. Channel hopping Supermarkets and convenience stores are the two fastest-growing channels, driven by SM Retail and 7-Eleven respectively, both of whom are forecast to see double-digit growth between now and 2023. The top 12 Online grocery retailing has been slower to take off in the Philippines compared to other markets across South East Asia. However, this channel will see the fastest growth over the next few years; starting from an almost non-existent base today, by 2023 the channel could be contributing up to 0.6% of sales. Many of the leading retailers including SM Retail, Robinsons and Puregold have started experimenting with online groceries in the Philippines. A number of pureplay retailers, both large and small, are also starting to look at taking advantage of the opportunity. The latest one to do so is Shopee, an online shopping platform with presence in Southeast Asia and Taiwan. In 2018, it launched an online grocery shopping app in the Philippines. • SM Retail (WalterMart), Puregold and Robinsons are the three major retailers that have shown the strongest ambition to date in online. All are experimenting with various models, whether these be B2C or B2B platforms or via third party services • Alibaba is selling groceries online in the Philippines via its Lazada marketplace. The range is currently limited to dry and packaged food. We expect Lazada will expand the offer and extend its range over the coming years • Lots of online pureplay platforms are emerging; for example, The Green Grocer, which offers healthy and high-quality food, Marketa.ph, where one can buy gourmet and 2ND QUARTER 2019 Column 2ND QUARTER 2019 PHILIPPINE RETAILING artisan food items, and Real Food, a grocer that offers organic food and customers pay cash on delivery • Third-party platforms such as Honestbee and MetroMart are other solutions enabling the expansion of online, by partnering with retailers, including Robinson Supermarkets and Puregold’s S&R wholesale, to deliver products from multiple stores in one order Evolve or be Extinct Retail is a constantly evolving industry. What does it mean for suppliers? As one of the fastest-growing grocery markets in South East Asia, the Philippines presents great growth opportunities, but these require the right level of investment and attention. Suppliers should consider partnering with local retailers to tap into modern trade. Although international convenience chains are present in the market, they are almost all operated under agreements with the major Philippine-based retailers. Suppliers should prioritise strategic relationships with the country’s four leading retailers: SM Retail, Puregold, Robinsons and Philippine Seven Corp. Finally, suppliers should also have robust strategies in place for fast-growing channels. Supermarkets and convenience are the two fastest growing channels, mainly driven by expansion, so having the right strategies in place for these two formats is crucial. Online, while growing quickly, will still take many years to become a disruptive force in the Philippines until the underlying infrastructure is vastly improved – but it’s certainly one to watch for the future. ABOUT THE AUTHOR Jion-Jiong provides insight on retailer strategies and industry trends in China, South Korea, the Philippines, Taiwan and Bangladesh, as well as leading IGD’s innovation and drugstore workstreams in Asia. She has worked with both retailers and manufacturers in the last 10 years on shopper insight, growth strategy and category management projects. Her background is in management consulting, with experience in qualitative and quantitative research gained at GfK and dunnhumby. Find more insights at IGD Asia: https://asia.igd. com/about/free-content MARKET WATCH DARREL WISBEY www.darrellwisbey-retailadviser.com Darrel Wisbey is a chief mentor and retail adviser who has 30 years of retail experience and has built a reputation for being a leader who interprets the market accurately, define strategic direction and deliver success by motivating, developing and inspiring teams to achieve continual improvement In striving for a competitive edge, retail is a constantly changing environment. What works today becomes “old fashioned” tomorrow as other retailers simply copy the latest concepts, retail formats and operational improvements. One element of retail that does not change is the demand by owners and shareholders to deliver an acceptable profit. Retailers are constantly under pressure to find new methods to achieve this demand. 1. Mass Merchandising Retail in the 60’s saw the arrival of the Mass Merchandising Department Store, (MMDS). This concept adopted the supermarket format with products available self-serve off display fixtures and pay at supermarket style front of store POS registers. The format attracted customers looking for value and this was responsible for taking business away from the traditional Department Stores. 2. Building the “bottom-line” With increased retail competition in the market, retailers had to look internally to find ways to protect and improve their bottom-line profit. Retailers used 3 key initiatives to protect and deliver net profit to meet the demands of owners and shareholders: a. Supplier contribution – retailers negotiated additional financial contribution from Suppliers by way of: i. Rebates – short and long – based on a % financial contribution rebated against a sliding scale of the annual purchase value and paid by quarter. ii. Promotional Subsidy – for suppliers to gain exposure for their products they contributed to the retailer’s promotion program. b. Direct importing – to gain a market advantage retailer’s moved into direct importing and bypassed importers. Direct imports when controlled increased profit margins. c. Operating Costs – with discipline and dedicated actions to reduce and control “shrinkage”, (the loss of potential profit by way of theft and administrative error), the savings delivered equal increase to the bottom-line net profit. Before listing significant retail changes for over the last four decades, it is important to acknowledge what I refer to as the “The three phases- “point of power”. 6. Fast Fashion One of the most recent impacts was the arrival of the “fast fashion” retailers. These players thrive on “new items” getting onto the shelves more frequently than ever before to drive shopper visitations. 7. Price reduction selling In earlier years advertising was a date event driven activity e.g. Mother’s Day, Christmas and Back to School or driven by seasonal fashion releases for Winter and Summer but as time has passed and the fight for market edge intensified the retailer has created more and more promotional activity as the primary tool to drive customer traffic. In supermarkets in Australia now it is usual to find the store smothered every day in big discounts and product special offers. Customers now resist paying full price and expect key items to be discounted and if not, they simply shift their place of purchase to a competitor. 8. Increase in customer will self-serve at POS. The most recent change in the world of retail is the expectation customers will now complete the point of sale transaction as “self- serve”. First delivery of this function was in supermarkets and this has followed quickly by the mass merchants. CONCLUSION: Retail in the early 70’s was controlled by the suppliers and most actions delivered in the retail store were heavily, (if not solely), influenced, (some would say controlled), by the suppliers. Within that decade retailers grew larger with more stores and rapidly growing buying strength such that the retailer’s buying power was able to wrestle control away from the suppliers. It was however the next shift in power that had the greatest impact on retail behaviour and that was the recognition that the true power is held by customers. Fail your customers and your business will inevitably also fail. What follows is a list of the most significant changes experienced in the Australian retail market: moved on into new countries and global expansion became the new challenge. Across many decades in retail experience shows that change is inevitable. In the constant battle to win and keep customers in this every increasing competitive market, failure to understand, embrace, anticipate or create change will lead to your business demise. Reactive retail management – “the retail followers” – whilst still important has the danger of always being behind the success achieved by the market leaders – “the retail creators” – and so as a follower the big enemies are time and reputation. 3. The introduction of Technology Technology entered the retail industry in the early 70’s and has grown from a simple data processing facility to today being immersed as a critical function in all facets of the business. Successful retailers now make decisions in real time and do so 24/7. 4. Online Retail The entry of “on-line” shopping gave the shopper a totally new way in which to purchase products. Initially there was doubt on the acceptance of the format but as is typical with technology the acceptance growth has been both fast, dynamic and is now . 5. Retail Expansion As retailers realised own market geographic expansion was almost at saturation, they sought entry into completely new regions and then Time: change happens faster and faster being driven by the reality of what is acceptable today is “out of date” tomorrow. Increased time pressure can lead to misinterpreted understanding of how the change benefits the retailer and what is required to successfully execute it in your business. Reputation: getting loyalty from your customers is a much tougher achievement in retail today than ever before. Customers are retail intelligent and more importantly demanding in what is required to attract them to your stores. Being innovative is a valuable differentiator that, in the eyes of the shopper, positions your business ahead of competitors making your stores the preferred destination. CHALLENGE: Are you a follower who relies upon reactionary behaviour to keep up with your competitors or are you a creator who retains existing customers and attracts new customers because you lead the market? Note: next issue will explore each of the above key retail changes in the retail market and examine the impacts of each change on retail success 13