Philippine Retailing 2019 Q1 | страница 10

Cover Story Ten trends for the fashion industry to watch in 2019 PHILIPPINE RETAILING 1ST QUARTER 2019 The BIGGEST and MOST IMPORTANT Retail Industry Event in the Philippines! 26TH NATIONAL RETAIL CONFERENCE & STORES ASIA EXPO2019 August 15-16, 2019 SMX Convention Center, MOA Complex, Pasay City For Sponsorship opportunities, email Grace Reclosado at [email protected] To be an Exhibitor, email Ivan Verzonilla at [email protected] By Imran Amed, Anita Balchandani, Marco Beltrami, Achim Berg, Saskia Hedrich, and Felix Rölkens As our trends indicate, new markets, new technologies, and shifting consumer needs present opportunities but also risks. We predict that 2019 will be a year shaped by consumer shifts linked to technology, social causes, and trust issues alongside the potential disruption from geopolitical and macroeconomic events. Only those brands that accurately reflect the zeitgeist or have the courage to self-disrupt will emerge as winners. 1. Caution ahead While 2018 was characterized by cautious optimism in the face of uncertainty, this year, various indicators point to clouds on the horizon that could somewhat dampen global economic-growth prospects. As the macroeconomic landscape shifts, we expect companies will seek to protect themselves from slower growth by implementing “shockproofing” measures. These will primarily be aimed at boosting productivity through greater efficiency and cutting costs. To ensure these interventions deliver sustainable benefits over the longer term, fashion players should seek to couple productivity enhancements with necessary innovation efforts, such as the automation of production, analytics- driven decision making, a review of the omnichannel footprint, and reorganization for greater agility. 2. Indian ascent India is increasingly a focal point for the fashion industry, reflecting a rapidly growing middle class and increasingly powerful manufacturing sector. These, together with strong economic fundamentals and growing tech savvy, make India too important for international brands to ignore. India is predicted to grow 8% a year between 2018 and 2022. The Indian middle class is forecast to expand at 1.4% a year over the same period, outpacing Brazil, China, and Mexico. As a result, India is set to move from being an increasingly important sourcing hub to being one of the most attractive consumer markets outside the Western world. 3. Trade 2.0 Escalating trade tensions will see international brands look closely at sourcing, perhaps to the benefit of countries involved in newly negotiated trade agreements. A further increase in south–south trade, especially between emerging Asia–Pacific countries, is likely. Fast fashion, which depends on short lead times, will need to find new strategies to maintain delivery speed and production quality—for example, through nearshoring or even on-shoring. Still, tough commercial decisions will be required in the face of tariffs in key consumer markets. Luxury players, especially those that derive most of their income from China or the United States, may be required to choose between raising prices and managing squeezed margins. 4. End of ownership In fashion, the shift to new ownership models is driven by growing consumer desire for variety, sustainability, and affordability, and sources suggest that the resale market, for instance, could be bigger than fast fashion within ten years. We expect 2019 will be known for three developments: First, the number of brands getting into the rental, resale, and refurbishment business will increase markedly. Second, we predict a notable increase in the number of rental-native brands born exclusively for rental or subscription models. Finally, more consumers will see a growing proportion of their wardrobes made up of preowned or rented products, especially for high- value items and accessories. 5. Getting ‘woke’ Younger consumers are seriously concerned with social and environmental causes, which many regard as the defining issues of our time. They increasingly back their beliefs with their shopping habits, favoring brands that are aligned with their values and avoiding those that aren’t. Brands are responding by integrating social and environmental themes into their products and services. The benefits of these policies are clear, but as the causes that some brands champion venture into controversial territory, there are risks and consequences for those that fail to get it right. 6. Now or never The consumer psyche is changing fast. Technology leaders such as Amazon, Deliveroo, Netflix, and Uber have raised customer expectations for speed and convenience. The implications of these new technologies are considerable and will lead to both defensive and offensive plays. On the defensive side, in 2019, we expect the majority of fashion players will integrate commerce functionality into social media, enabling direct-to-product journeys. They will also likely continue to invest in improving mobile conversion rates, streamlining the checkout process, improving search, and optimizing the user experience. Offensively, we expect brands and retailers to collaborate increasingly with technology companies to develop proprietary tools, such as visual-search engines. 7. Radical transparency Given consumer demands for greater transparency through the value chain, we see three key dynamics in the coming period. First, players will rigorously audit their business practices to identify potential areas that may erode consumer trust. The lens for this analysis could be, “What would my customers think if this was on the front page of a newspaper?” Brands will invest to address any problem areas and will highlight their best practices to create a competitive edge. Some will use new technologies such as blockchain, in which each node of the network sees the whole history of transactions. Second, we expect more rigorous reporting of social and environmental impact. Finally, brands are likely to be more transparent in the event of a crisis and respond more quickly, admit when they are at fault more often, and be willing to apologize. 8. Self-disrupt Looking forward, we see three key disruptive developments. To compete with “challenger” brands, established brands will continue to innovate, leveraging their scale to fast-track capability building. The latter will help companies remain at the forefront of business- model innovation and respond to new fashion trends more quickly. It will be increasingly important to adopt agile ways of working and depart from the traditional operating model. Players will also work to streamline supply chains, enabling faster time to market. In an increasingly fickle fashion environment, market leaders will also need to take more risks to stay ahead. Sublabels will continue to proliferate, allowing brands to experiment while maintaining the authenticity of the parent brand. 9. Digital land grab This year, we are likely to see an accelerated emergence of ecosystems of related and overlapping businesses. There will likely be an intensified race for pole position, with the largest players battling to become the go-to platform for consumers and brands. The holy grail of the industry will be integration of value-added services that remove friction in the consumer and supplier journey through effective use of data analytics at scale. This could lead to a continued wave of M&A activity in a race to find the best complementary offerings for existing platforms. When generalist e-commerce platforms remain focused on retail margins rather than ancillary services, without occupying a niche, the demise is likely to come sooner rather than later. 10. On demand In 2019, we expect to see continued investment in speed via more onshore and nearshore sourcing, virtual sampling, microfactories (for rapid prototyping), and automation. Reduced lead times will be key drivers of competitive advantage. Small-scale players will likely lead the way, while larger brands will pilot in selected markets. We expect the rising take-up of on-demand capabilities will lead to a spike in personalization and a new generation of customized clothing start-ups, creating a new definition of “made to measure.” In the technology space, automation intellectual property will continue to develop, with patent approvals likely to be critical success factors in the years ahead. McKinsey & Company, 01/2019 To avail the early bird rate, email Norie Martinez at [email protected] @NRCEPH PRESENTED BY: #NRCEPH www.nrce-ph.com 11