Perspectives Q4 2021 Perspectives Q4 2021 | Page 36

LONG-TERM CARE

“ The Game ’ s Afoot ”

Sherlock Holmes

More than enough ink has been spilled about our recent global pandemic . Like the World Wars of the last century , post-battle adjustments and accommodations means we will never be the same . This could not be truer than our seemingly perpetual and yet unsuccessful quest to ameliorate a pending massive financial debacle . The report from the Interagency-Task-Force-LTCI proclaimed that in 2010 long-term care services represented 1 % of gross domestic product but by 2050 that is expected to grow to 3 %. To put a fine point on it : In 2034 , older Americans will outnumber children .
Retreating from the field
Independent brokerage has led the charge . Our peak sales performance in terms of the number of those who took some action to protect themselves and their families was between 2002 and 2004 . The last 15 + years have left substantial battle scars from rising new business premiums , restrictive underwriting practices , and repetitive rate increases resulting in company and agent retreat from the field of battle . However , it is important to note , that even when individual stand-alone sales have decreased 90 % over that period of time , our enlightenment of wise consumers has continued to help them choose some version of traditional or combo life coverage .
New buyers have remained stable at about a half a million per year . According to recent LIMRA numbers this flat production scenario held true again in 2020 , however sales of life combo products in terms of premium overall fell 23 %. During an historically difficult year it should not be surprising that premium matters with asset based single premium declining and recurring premium holding steady . Universal combo ’ s remain the most popular . Most important , chronic illness rider sales showed the only positive growth with two thirds of all combo sales falling into that category . It is critical to note that the majority of those sales did not require any current premium therefore paying reduced benefits using the lien or discount method . Personally , we believe this may count as “ taking action ” but not a “ sale .”
The Game ’ s Afoot continued on page 38
Ronald R . Hagelman , Jr ., CLTC , CSA , LTCP & Barry J . Fisher , LTCP are Principals of ICE FLOE Consulting , LLC . With decades of expertise in the life and long-term care insurance industry , they provide product development , distribution & training strategies for extended care risk . www . icefloeconsulting . com
STATS AT-A-GLANCE
In 2010 , long-term care services represented 1 % of gross domestic product .
By 2034 , older Americans will outnumber children .
By 2050 , long-term care services are expected to grow to 3 % of gross domestic product .
36 Perspectives Q4 2021