More power , faster As electrical infrastructure develops and standards of living improve around the world , we ’ ll naturally need more megawatts of power to meet demand . But a side effect of the green energy transition is that each megawatt of electricity end use will be more copper intensive than fossil fuel alternatives .
The main reason is that renewable electricity generation is much more dispersed than conventional thermal generation from fossil fuels , making it more material intensive . For example , each wind turbine of 1 to 5 MW has its own generator , while a coal fired thermal power plant has one generator of typically 400 MW . A more dispersed generation also means that the grid for transferring electricity from where it ’ s made to where it ’ s needed must expand .
In addition , generating electricity from sustainable sources is often weather-dependent . While coal can burn nearly 24 / 7 , wind power needs a consistent breeze and solar power only works during the daytime . To compensate for natural low-output periods , we ’ ll need extra production capability and storage to keep up with demand , meaning more copper for more renewable energy systems . This is another reason why we need a stronger grid : the better all sites of generation and consumption are interconnected , the easier it becomes to tap the electricity from where it is available at that moment .
Clean electricity will be the largest consumer of copper by 2040 , but copper is also used for some of the non-electrical systems that aid the transition to Net Zero .
Generation is one thing , but Net Zero means decarbonising energy at the other end of the chain too : the end user . Carbon-free end-use energy on the roads , for instance , means more electric vehicles , but each requires 2-3 times more copper than an internal combustion engine powered vehicle .
Clean electricity will be the largest consumer of copper by 2040 , but copper is also used for some of the non-electrical systems that aid the transition to Net Zero . For example , as an excellent thermal conductor , copper is often used in heating and cooling systems , such as those found in heat pumps , which are playing a major role in reducing fossil fuel use for heating .
Finally , the quest for energy efficiency itself is copper intensive . According to Joule ’ s law , energy lost as heat in an electrical wire is proportional to resistance and resistance is inversely proportional to wire diameter — so the thicker a copper cable is , the less energy is wasted as heat and therefore the more efficient the system is . This includes the windings of transformers and electric motors . Essentially , the more copper we use in each application , the more energy we save .
Is there enough ?
The International Energy Agency has published two scenarios for future copper demand . The Stated Policies Scenario ( STEPS ) is based on what governments have already pledged to do , and the more aggressive Sustainable Development Scenario ( SDS ) is based on reaching Net Zero by 2050 . Both scenarios see annual copper demand increasing to 40 Mt by mid-century ( from around 26 Mt nowadays ), either in 2050 for STEPS or 2040 for SDS .
Considering these lofty figures , it is natural to wonder whether Earth has enough copper to meet our requirements . The short answer is yes . Enough resources exist to support the energy transition and meet society ’ s needs . The question is whether we can extract that copper quickly enough to align with STEPS or SDS .
Primary copper production currently sits at 22 million tonnes ( Mt ) annually . Together with 4 Mt of recycled copper , this meets current demand of 26 Mt . Demand has grown by about 3.3 per cent per year for over a century , doubling about every 30 years . In the past , the drivers for copper demand were population growth , electrification deployment and electricity usage . Today , it is the green energy transition and improving global standards of living . At present , we have about 41 years ’ worth of copper reserves — copper in the ground at operational mines — and up to 250 years ’ worth of predicted , but currently unexploited resources .
Surprisingly , the number of years ’ worth of copper reserves has been roughly the same for decades . Just like with oil , the scarcer it becomes , the more effort goes into finding more .
Issue 68 PECM 25