Ford’s IT department in North America
and Lanner’s development team. The HPC
experimentation shaved another 2-4 weeks
off the delivery time for each project study,
but again the key outcome was delivering
more analysis and decision support for
management. In the first full year of using HPC,
Ford’s simulation team experimented across
a total of approx. 100,000 hours of WITNESS
simulations. A figure that has since quadrupled
by the end of 2016!
Another factor crucial to the team’s success
has been that of delivering easy to understand
analysis in a format that others could easily
interpret and relate to. Investing in the
development of sophisticated tables, charts
and analytical calculations, Ford’s simulation
experiments now seamlessly generate
engineering, manufacturing, execution
and performance measurement reports in
the exact format that Ford management
understand and are familiar with.
This has had the effect of further encouraging
senior management to ask even more business
questions of the simulations; success breeding
success! Fast configuration of scenarios, fast
experimentation and fast analysis and creation
of reports underpins the success of Ford’s FAST
simulation capability.
RECENT WORK – A SYMBIOTIC
SIMULATION
In 2015, the PTME in conjunction with
the University of East London PhD began
developing a “symbiotic solution” with an
aim to shrink the required configuration
time for each study even further. With the
abundance of connected data sources
available, it becomes feasible to tap into live
manufacturing systems and condition the data
directly into the formats consumable by the
simulation.
Ford leveraged the API interface to WITNESS to
connect and control models using interfaces
from other systems. The result are models
configured and driven directly by live and
accurate data sources effectively generating a
digital twin of real world systems.
Models will increasingly be fed in this way in
the era of smart manufacturing as modelling
becomes embedded in operational as well
as strategic decision making. The symbiotic
simulation of the real facility will take the latest
data and plans and constantly assess future
performance.
IS SIMULATION MATURITY IN
SIGHT?
Today, John states, “Software underpinned
by WITNESS predictive simulation software
and a talented team of ten have allowed the
PTME to cover more ground and to develop
a bigger and more detailed picture of actions
and consequences than ever before. Advanced
modelling as well as simulation question-
and-answers now work hand-in-hand,
allowing significant cost-savings. It is Ford
management’s thirst for simulation that has
enabled and allowed these advances.”
“Success is also marked by the growing use
of simulation in the plants and, most of all,
in other departmental meetings where we
frequently hear ‘what does the simulation
say?” John remarks. “In my opinion, we are by
no means at the peak of the maturity curve
– having spent the best part of my career
establishing a world class simulation capability
at Ford, I am excited about how future
developments will enhance our achievements
further.”
Looking into the future, the goal is to continue
to reduce the elapsed time required to
complete a study project. If analysis can be
returned in less than one business day an
even wider range of questions can be asked
and answered in enough time to influence
decisions. To do this PTME aim put more
intelligence into the upfront assimilation of
the data. Simulated outputs will continue in
the same formats but the tools used to present
results will change; the team are already
looking at alternative options for analytics,
both locally and deployed across networks.
INCREASING DEMAND
It is also forecasted that as business complexity
and demand for volume increases steadily
year-on-year, the use of predictive simulation
will increase along with the scope of business
questions. John’s team are looking to
introduce more advanced analytics capabilities
into Ford’s current tools to be able to handle
their increasing complexity.
Redesigning the user interface will allow PTME
to guide production engineers, who have
typically been internal customers of the team,
to use the simulation tools. Removing the
additional complexity in the project process
means that the correct implementation
decision can be taken every time. And
this simplicity will be essential to the next
milestone in Ford’s simulation program.
In the near future Ford are aiming to allow
every plant to run their own simulations on
demand. Using FAST, on-site engineers can
expect to be able to look back 3 months, get
statistically stable data, condition the data for
the experiment, run the simulation and obtain
results. They should then be able to use AI
and manual intelligence to guide their actions
based on their modelled predictions.
Key Ingredients to Ford’s Simulation Success
John identifies a number of key factors in
making simulation a success at Ford:
Establishing the right methodology and
developing a streamlined process to enable
fast simulation along with efficient data entry.
Modelling at the correct level of detail. The
level of detail needs to be determined by the
questions that are to be asked of a model. It is
easy to waste time with too much detail. John
states “My advice to others looking at building
their simulation capabilities is to consider
how to model robustly. Do not get drawn
into emulation (modelling every detail) which
is time consuming in terms of building the
model, gathering input data, and which may
yield little return in terms of model accuracy
relative to the input.”
Integrate simulation modellers with the
plant teams. The simulation team has now
been co-located with manufacturing, so that
communication can become more direct – and
that engineers on both sides can feel integral
to the overall process.
Develop reporting systems that communicate
well. The right report will be understood
immediately by the recipient and enable quick
actions.
Develop methods to run model experiments
quickly. The development of an HPC scaled
deployment with Lanner has allowed for fast
results and the solution is scalable.
SIMULATION AT FORD – THE
BOTTOM LINE
John considers that the use of simulation is key
to driving efficiency at Ford.
“Have we achieved everything we set out
to achieve? Absolutely, and more. I am
immensely proud of the simulation capability
we now have, and the fact that it has driven
multi-million-pound savings in production
programs across the world over the years is
testament to the software capability and our
methods of use.”
Issue 42 PECM
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