Pay Me Now or Pay Me Later PKSOI Papers | Page 19

victories may be more stable than government victories and even agreements backed by peacekeepers in the long-run, but there is also the risk that they fail in the short-term. In addition, the purges, repression and other unsavory means of consolidating power that often accompany rebel victories represent violations of international human rights standards. Reducing Battlefield and Civilian Casualties Deciding whether or not to deploy peacekeepers should also include a consideration of the human costs associated with intervention. Most obviously, these involve casualties that take place on the battlefield, but wars also kill and displace civilian populations and continue to do so long after a conflict ends.26 Do peacekeepers reduce the number of casualties inflicted by war and does this protection come with any tradeoffs? In the more specific case of UN peacekeeping, a reduction in battlefield deaths occurs when peacekeepers are armed and deployed in a sizable number to intervene in a civil war. In the set of civil wars that occurred in Africa from 1992 to 2011, Lisa Hultman and her colleagues report that armed UN troops reduced battlefield violence to a dramatic degree.27 The average number of battle deaths in conflicts without UN troops was 22 per month; according to their model, a deployment of 10,000 troops would drop that average to 6 per month, or a 70 percent reduction in battlefield deaths.28 There is no such reduction in battle deaths, however, when peacekeepers serve a policing or monitoring role. Thus, the ability of troops to separate belligerents forcefully and suppress violence is crucial in reducing the human cost of conflict. Admittedly, large 12