distinction between the identity of victors and postwar stability. In civil wars in which the government
prevails, peace is far from guaranteed. Compared to
government victories, when rebels win, a recurrence
of war is 90 percent less likely. Significantly for our
purposes, a government victory is also less likely to
be stable than a war that ends with an agreement supported by peacekeeping operations. These outcomes
are 25 percent less likely to return to war than government victories.23
Why are these rebel victories more stable? One reason may be that rebels are more likely to “clean house”
following a victory and create conditions that are less
favorable to opponents who might compete for the
right to govern. This is especially the case in revolutions in which the successful group adopts repressive
policies and makes an effort to eliminate all political
opposition. At the end of the Costa Rican Civil War in
1948, the victorious rebels forced many of the defeated government officials into exile, avoiding renewed
conflict. In contrast, following Guatemala’s various
civil conflicts in the post-WWII era, the government
often won but did not quash rebel organizations, so
they regrouped and reengaged the government with
violence. This effect is not consistent throughout time,
though, as rebel victories are initially more unstable
than government victories. In the first year following
the end of a war, victorious rebels are twice as likely
to return to the battlefield as victorious governments.
By the third year, however, the relationship reverses
and a government victory becomes less stable than a
rebel victory.24
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