Outlook Money Outlook Money, March 2018 | Page 28

Stock Pick Larsen & Toubro Why Buy? x CMP: 1290.45 x PE: 43.10 n The company’s focus on defence orders, heavy engineering and factory orders will improve return ratios. n As the largest infrastructure player, L&T will be a key beneficiary of economic recovery in FY19 with the pickup in capex cycle *As on 20 Feb 18 Riding on robust order inflows Watch Out For n Slowdown in government spending Revenue growth will be driven by big contracts, says Malini Bhupta and sharp fall in global crude prices could affect company negatively Financials Larsen & Toubro BSE Sensex Net sales (` crore) 122.52 150 100 FY17 109311.81 85.90 101122.48 FY16 FY15 92004.58 FY15 Note : Larsen & Toubro had announced bonus in 2017 in the ratio of 1:2.The share has been quoting ex-bonus from July 13, 2017. 0 FY16 FY15 1 Jan 2015 F or any infrastructure company, new order inflows and execution of existing orders determine how the company will fare. On both counts, Larsen & Toubro seems to be on a firm wicket. The company reported an order inflow growth of 71 per cent Y-o-Y in the December quarter of the current fiscal. In the first six months of FY18, order inflows declined by nine per cent to `55,100 crore. But there are clear signs of a recovery in the second half of the year, and the next year is expected to be even better. Brokerage firm Jefferies pegs the potential of fresh order inflows at $19 billion in FY19. The brokerage believes that the domestic order flow growth will set the stage for L&T’s engineering and construction margin recovery. This will be further supported by domestic execution. 26 FY17 20 Feb 2018 Expected deals In the December quarter, L&T posted an 11 per cent growth in infrastructure revenues. Domestic infrastructure revenue growth hit a six quarter high at 20 per cent, despite the challenges in the real estate sector. Even heavy engineering and hydrocarbons reported a healthy revenue growth in the quarter, suggesting a broader recovery in the economy and investments in infrastructure. Edelweiss Securities expects L&T’s earnings to grow at 18 per cent CAGR in FY17-20 estimates. The brokerage is factoring in 150 basis points jump in margins and 14 per cent growth in execution, both far from cyclical peak levels. The Street expects the company to win a raft of orders: $3 billion from defence (Landing Platform Dock), $2 billion from railways (Dedicated Freight Corridor) and Outlook Money March 2018 www.outlookmoney.com 18143.04 16610.81 16758.27 6738.81 FY17 FY16 OP (` crore) 50 PAT (` crore) 5582.66 4964.00 EPS (`) 64.75 FY17 FY16 45.44 FY15 51.26 OP: Operating profit; PAT: Profit after tax; EPS: Earnings per share; Source: Ace Equity $12 billion from defence (Tactical Communications Systems) in FY19. The company’s revenue growth will be driven by execution of large orders in FY18 and FY19. Motilal Oswal Securities is building in a revenue growth of eight per cent for FY18 against a guidance of 10-12 per cent. Despite the slowdown in execution after rollout of GST, L&T’s execution has improved in the December quarter. Analysts also expect the company’s net working capital to remain at 20 per cent of sales in the near future, given the time taken to process input credit under the new GST regime. Under its strategic plan called Lakshya, the company proposes to bring down its net working capital to 18 per cent of sales by FY21. Overall, L&T will be a key beneficiary of the uptick in capex cycle, believe analysts.