Outlook Money Outlook Money, June 2018 | Page 22

Stock Pick Why Buy? Essel Propack Product Innovation Pushing Growth The company looks well placed to ride the growth in non-oral care category, says Jash Kriplani 191.69 200 Sensex (Points) Essel Propack (`) n Strong earnings visibility n Entered the non-oral care segment n Growth outlook remains healthy Watch Out For Recovery of global acquisitions Normalization of GST-related issues Slowdown in consumer demand New launches may not be received well by the market n n n n Financials Net sales (` crore) FY18 150 FY17 128.64 100 FY16 2,446.42 2,302.29 2,127.50 OP (` crore) FY18 50 FY17 0 FY16 15 May 2015 F rom being the first company to introduce laminated tubes in India in the 80s to becoming the largest player in the oral care segment witsh 36 per cent global market share, Essel Propack has come a long way. Riding on product innovation, the company is looking to repeat its success in the non-oral category (3.5 per cent market share), which is nearly three times the size of oral care. Foraying into non-oral care business has worked well for Essel Propack. Over FY12-17, its revenue grew at 7 per cent CAGR from `1,583 crore to `2,302 crore, while profit clocked 30 per cent CAGR from `51 crore to `190 crore. Operating margin was up 217 basis points to 19 per cent during the same period. Revenue contribution from the non- oral care tubes business rose from 34 per cent in FY12 to 40 per cent 22 17 May 2018 in FY17. The company now plans to take the contribution of non-oral care to 50 per cent by FY19. “We expect a strong growth in non-oral revenue riding on conversions in the US and Europe and growth in cosmetics, foods and pharma in China and India. The oral care business is expected to log stable revenue growth. Earlier, losses in the Americas and Europe had impacted Essel’s performance,” says Nihal Jham, an analyst at Edelweiss. Given its execution record, analysts believe that the company’s valuation is attractive. “The company is trading at 8.6x one-year forward EV/EBITDA, which is at a 15-20 per cent discount to global peers such as Aptar and Bemis. None of the global peers’ return ratios are at par with Essel Propack. So the company should get a premium valuation as it expands its business,” observes Jham. Outlook Money June 2018 www.outlookmoney.com PAT (` crore) FY18 170.1 FY17 190.32 FY16 171.6 EPS (`) 491.12 456.6 427.6 FY18 10.91 FY17 12.11 FY16 10.83 OP: Operating profit; PAT: Profit after tax; EPS: Earnings per share; Source: Ace Equity The performance of the company’s global acquisitions is also expected to improve. In October 2016, Essel Propack bought Essel Deutschland Germany (EDG), its partner in the joint venture. The German unit, which accounts for 40 per cent of Europe’s topline, saw its revenue drop by 10 per cent for the nine months ended December 2017. “In six to eight months, the EDG business should breakeven. That should give a fillip to overall Europe operations,” says Ankit Gor, analyst at Systematix. Sanjay Manyal, who is analyst at ICICI Securities, says that the EDG turnaround will offer Essel Propack cross-selling opportunities, sourcing flexibility and higher capacity utilization at its European plants. Given its growing presence in the non-oral segment, Essel Propack looks well placed to ride the growth in non-oral care. The company is trading at reasonable valuations of 18.42x one-year forward earnings.