Outlook Money Outlook Money, July 2018 | Page 38

Stock Pick Thomas Cook Why Buy? x CMP: 275.25 x PE: 87.10 n Spinning off India’s largest staffing company into a separate entity n Profit after tax margins have trippled from 1.5 per cent to five per cent in FY18 *As on 26 June 18 Shares Rejig To Boost Investor Value Watch Out For The tourism sector looks to restructure business for better yields says Yagnesh Kansara 169.49 200 n Threat of competition from online travel portals and unorganised travel agents n Concerns relating to safety of foreign tourists visiting India Financials Net sales (` crore) 11,648 FY18 150 FY17 100 129.02 FY16 8,746 4,284 BSE Sensex Thomas Cook 0 FY17 FY16 1 Jan 2015 T Source : BSE India homas Cook (India) Ltd (TCIL) is the leading integrated travel and travel related financial services company in the country. It has presence in four different verticals namely travels and corporate services, human resource services, financial services (foreign exchange) and vacation ownership (Sterling Holiday). The company derives 53 per cent revenues from HR services, 43 per cent from travels and related services, three per cent from Holiday Resorts and two per cent from financial services. It holds majority stake in Quess Corp, a leading staffing firm in India having presence across the four verticals. Over FY16-9M FY18, its travels business has posted 51 per cent revenue compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) led by acquisition of Kuoni Travels (SOTC). 38 26 Jun 2018 Quess Corp has posted 44 per cent revenue and 50 per cent EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) CAGR over FY13-18. TCIL is likely to spin off shareholding of Quess Corp in Thomas Cook. As a result Thomas Cook shareholders would receive one equity share of Quess for every 5.3 TCIL shares held. Thus, this would waive off holding company discount and the shareholders would get full value in Quess. However, there are concerns like increase in organised low-cost travel agents or slow- down in the economy. For 9M FY18, company has posted 32 per cent revenue growth led by 29 per cent increase in human resource (Quess) and 39 per cent growth from travels segment. EBITDA increased 35 per cent year on year to `440 crore. EBITDA margin marginally increased to 5.1 per cent. Outlook Money July 2018 www.outlookmoney.com 420 128 88 FY16 303 88 16.6 EPS (`) 614 FY18 FY18 FY17 OP (` crore) 50 PAT (` crore) 7.9 FY18 FY17 FY16 2.4 1.3 OP: Operating profit; PAT: Profit after tax; EPS: Earnings per share; Source: Ace Equity For financial year 2017, EBITDA margin was at 3.7 per cent PAT surged 1.5x to `216 crore on the back of tax write back of `32 crore versus `85 crore tax paid for 9M FY17. Other income increased by 25 per cent to `74 crore. According to HDFC Securities, TCIL’s revenue may see an upturn of 20 per cent CAGR over FY17-20E, led by strong performance from HR services and robust growth momentum from the travels segment. It expects EBITDA to post 28 per cent CAGR led by turnaround in Sterling’s business and strong show from travels. EBITDA margin may expand 140 basis points over FY17-20E. Strong revenues and robust operating performance would drive 75 per cent PAT CAGR over the same period. It has recommended to buy TCIL at current market price (CMP) of `277. Investors can add on declines to `260 with a target price of `340.