Outlook English - Print Subscribers Copy Outlook English, 26 March 2018 | Page 24
U P BYPOL LS
OPI NI ON
BADRI
NARAYAN
IF A COALITION
IS WILLING
The losses in the bypolls contain a dire message for the BJP
R
ESULTS of the much-awaited bypolls for
the Phulpur and Gorakhpur Lok Sabha
constituencies in Uttar Pradesh are a bit-
ter disappointment for the BJP—the
Samajwadi Party, supported by Bahujan
Samaj Party, won both seats. Political ana
lysts foresaw the possibility of BJP’s loss in
Phulpur, but most had few doubts that the BJP
would continue its stranglehold on Gorakhpur.
Voters in Gorakhpur astonished every poll pre-
dictor. Praveen Nishad, son of Rashtriya Nishad
Party’s Sanjay Nishad, won the seat, defeating
BJP’s Upendra Shukla by a handsome margin of
21,881 votes. The victory was bigger in Phulpur,
where Nagendra Singh Patel of Samajwadi Party
got the better of BJP’s Kaushalendra Patel by
59,460 votes. As we know, both seats are a strong-
hold of top BJP leaders. Gorakhpur has been a
bastion of UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath for
long, while the Phulpur LS seat was vacated by
BJP’s Keshav Prasad Maurya, who became dep-
uty chief minister of UP in 2017.
When the BSP declared its support for Sama
jwadi candidates on both these seats only a week
before the polling date, analysts were sceptical
of their success; the joint endeavour, they felt,
came too late for voters to take note. The results,
as we have noted, belied their expectations.
If analysed carefully, the results point to the
SP-BSP alliance being much more than a pact;
rather, it is a broader social alliance of a majority
of OBCs and SCs in UP. However, some OBCs and
SCs had reservations about such a pact, due to the
SP and the BSP being sworn political foes for over
two decades. The growing competition for politi-
cal participation and developmental aspirations
among these rising sections of society also con-
tributed to the further fragmentation of the OBC
and SC vote base. When Mayawati declared her
support to the Samajwadi Party and Akhilesh
Yadav accepted it gratefully, it sent a political
signal that trickled down remarkably efficiently
among cadres and through the entire swathe of
voters. As if in a trice, a social alliance of sorts was
formed between sections of OBCs and SCs. Of
course, solidarity of such a temporary nature
24 OUTLOOK 26 March 2018
GETTY IMAGES
WITH BEHENJI
SP supporters in
Varanasi celebrate their
success in the bypolls
In Gorakhpur,
Nishad, Pasi
and other
marginalised
castes voted
for the SP
candidate. This
countered
Yogi’s influence.
cannot cut through deeper differences.
In spite its traditional connects with Apna
Dal—who are partners in the BJP-led NDA at
the Centre—the Patel community, which has a
strong presence in Phulpur, voted in favour of
SP, along with Yadavs and a section of Muslims
and Dalits. In Gorakhpur, it seems a similar
OBC-Dalit caste alliance worked well for the SP,
diminishing the traditional pull of the Gora
khpur math and its chief, Yogi Adityanath.
Adityanath is known for his personal connect
with voters in this area. In Gorakhpur, Nishad,
Pasi and other marginalised castes voted tog
ether with OBCs and MBCs. Indeed, the result
suggests that this widespread caste alliance
superseded Adityanath’s influence. It reminds
us of the SP-BSP alliance and its success in UP
electoral politics 25 year back. The result also
suggests that the SP and the BSP, who were
losing their grip over their vote bases in last few
elections due to the dual onslaught of Narendra
Modi’s charisma and a ruthlessly efficient
election machine crafted by Amit Shah, are now
recovering slowly. It is a hint that they are going
to regain their voters enormously in coming
elections. The bypoll results also suggest a
creeping disillusionment among BJP voters