UP BYPOLLS
A Turn in the Caste Table
Reverse-engineering the BJP strategy , the SP-BSP are back on the offensive
A RIOT IN COLOUR Samajwadi Party supporters celebrating in Allahabad , UP
PTI by Bhavna Vij-Aurora
AFTER the repeated , humiliating defeats of 2014 and 2017 , BSP supremo Mayawati and SP chief Akhilesh Yadav set aside 25 years of acrimony for coming together to beat the saffron party at its own game . The results of the Gorakhpur and Phulpur byelections have validated the SP-BSP partnership and shown that if they stand together , the complicated caste equations can work in their favour , giving the ruling BJP a tough time . BJP president Amit Shah had taken the art of stitching together of caste combines to an almost scientific level . It served the party well in the 2014 general elections and , after some tough lessons from the Bihar debacle of 2015 , again in the UP assembly polls last year .
This time , the SP-BSP strategy — to disrupt the BJP ’ s caste calculus — was evident in the choice of candidates . For Gorakhpur , Akhilesh chose Praveen Kumar Nishad , son of Dr Sanjay Nishad , who founded NISHAD ( Nirbal Indian Shoshit Hamara Aam Dal ) in 2016 , representing the OBC community of boatmen — a large section of the state ’ s population and the second largest comm unity after the Brahmins in the area . In 2014 , the Nishads are believed to have voted BJP , which had been wooing non-Yadav OBCs . Pitting a Nishad against BJP ’ s Brahmin candidate proved to be a masterstroke , while the saffron party
failed to consolidate elite caste voters .
“ Akhilesh turned the tables on the BJP ,” says a state BJP leader . “ Besides the BSP and NISHAD , he allied with others like the Peace Party , NCP , CPM , RLD , Forward Bloc and Pragatisheel Manav Samaj Party . This brought together Yadavs , Dalits , non-Yadav OBCs and Muslims .”
In Phulpur , with a substantial Muslim population , the BJP candidate K . S . Patel lost to N . S . Patel , the SP candidate from the same Kurmi caste , by a 59,631-vote margin , despite former MP Ateeq Ahmad polling 40,000 votes as an Independent .
BJP leaders , who had dismissed the SP-BSP tie-up as one in whose favour neither the “ rasayan ” ( chemistry ) nor the “ ganit ” ( arithmetic ) worked , had to eat crow . “ The arrogant BJP couldn ’ t see the defeat coming and took the elections lightly ,” says Sudha Pai of the Centre for Political Studies , JNU . “ Akhilesh approached Mayawati when things looked tough with the Congress . It was do-ordie for both , while the Congress was entirely out of the picture .” Both Congress candidates lost their deposit .
Now , while the SP and the BSP may formalise their successful partnership
The strategy to disrupt the BJP ’ s caste calculus was evident in the choice of candidates fielded by Akhilesh ’ s party . and contest the 2019 general elections as alliance partners , the Congress seems unlikely to be included . “ The Congress shouldn ’ t have contested the bypolls if it was interested in a larger alliance against the BJP . It ’ s no longer a player in UP politics ,” an SP leader tells Outlook . “ With hardly any base , it brings little to the table as an alliance partner . At best , if it does find a place in the alliance , the seat-sharing formula for 2019 is likely to be 35 seats each for SP and BSP , with only 10 for the Congress .”
Ironically , even as the grand old party is being edged out of political discourse in the country ’ s largest state , it is trying to forge a united front to take on the might of the BJP in 2019 . UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi hosted leaders of 20 political parties for dinner at her house on March 13 . “ While the efforts are laudable , the moot question that will always remain is who will lead the Opposition ,” says Pai . “ Most senior leaders are not likely to accept Rahul Gandhi as their leader . Also , there are regional pressures . Will the DMK and the AIADMK work in an alliance ? Will the TDP and the TRS work together ? There will be issues of seat sharing and caste conflicts . It is complicated .”
Looking at the positives , the SP leader says that if the SP-BSP alliance works on the ground , it would be good enough to shake the BJP on its own . “ The BJP-led NDA got 73 of its Lok Sabha seats from UP . Take away a big chunk and the BJP will have a tough time to return to power in 2019 ,” he concludes . O
22 OUTLOOK 26 March 2018