Outlook English - Print Subscribers Copy Outlook English, 18 June 2018 | Page 37

JITENDER GUPTA
Mayawati 62
Three-time chief minister of UP
Bahujan Samaj Party chief
STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES
● A Dalit leader who has
forged her own brand of
politics combining socialistic
leanings with populism
● Has the image of governing
UP with an iron hand
● Uses the Dalit card in polls,
but accommodates everyone
while administering ● Has failed to develop a
second-rung party leadership
● Has been unable to keep her
flock together and failed to
woo back those who crossed
over to the BJP
● Her voteshare has steadily
declined, holding on to only her
core constituency of Jatavs
OPPORTUNITIES THREATS
With growing Dalit and OBC
disenchantment with the BJP,
it is a chance to consolidate
her traditional non-Yadav OBC
votebank
● If she manages to add 18
per cent of Muslims to her
votebank, she becomes a
formidable challenger ● Corruption cases haunt the
BSP and her builder-friendly
policies burnt the common
man’s pockets
● The old rivalry with SP can
flare up, leading to ego clashes
●
position is running “an agenda to defeat PM Modi”
roll over the countryside like an unstoppable force, there
was nary an immoveable object that it encountered. And
now, despite the diverse, even ideologically competing
forces that now stand as potential allies, there is hope.
“The opposition is coalescing together as they have real-
ised the harm done by the NDA may be irreversible,” Con-
gress leader and spokesperson Manish Tewari tells Outlook.
“So 2019 will be a Westminster type of parliamentary elec-
tions. The BJP may try to convert it into a presidential-style
election again, but is not likely to succeed.”
Modi vs the Rest
Try as they may, the opposition will likely run into only one
man in 2019—Modi. For all practical purposes, the BJP has
dropped enough hints that it will go to the people with a
simple equation: Modi vs the rest, take your pick. It worked
wonderfully well in 2014 and they are sure it will work again
in 2019, with minor tweaks. And herein lies the dilemma for
the opposition. Contesting a bypoll or state polls unitedly is
one matter, fighting the general elections without a “face” is
another. Each one is an ambitious creature. How to get all of
them on board this Noah’s ark? And who will be Noah?
As the leader of the principal opposition party—even though
on paper—Congress president Rahul Gandhi could stake
claim. So can West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee,
if she can ensure a fair share of her state’s 42 Lok Sabha seats.
The mercurial leader is known to be keen to lead an alliance
against the NDA, or even against the Congress, hobnobbing
with leaders such as Telangana chief minister K. Chan-
drashekhar Rao for a third front. Mamata has so far managed
Mamata Banerjee 63
Chief minister of West Bengal
All India Trinamool Congress chief
STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES
● Image of street-smart
fighter, who ended the
CPI(M)’s 34-year rule in Bengal
● Has redefined who her
opposition is at every stage,
after decimating the last one
● Makes allies walk on
eggshells, extending only
issue-based support ● Her mercurial nature
lends itself to an image of
unreliability and volatility
● Party leaders wary of tacit
projection of nephew Abhishek
Banerjee as a sort of successor
● Seen as “pandering to
minorities” and polarising the
scene for political gain
OPPORTUNITIES THREATS
Poll experts say her party’s
ascending voteshare could
get her 40 of 42 LS seats in
Bengal, giving her an edge over
other regional parties
● Experience and capital might
place her at the fulcrum of
alliance negotiations ● Easy to prick the scam-heavy
clouds of Narada and Sharada
into a downpour anytime
● Mukul Roy could take away
some leaders with promises of
Union cabinet berths
●
18 June 2018 OUTLOOK 37