SAFFRON PUSH
A SHEET TO EXCEL IN
Amit Shah hatches a few plans to break into Bengal
by Dola Mitra in Calcutta
THE BJP ’ s brute , clean majority in the parliamentary elections of 2014 was achieved without much success in West Bengal — it won only two of the state ’ s 42 seats . So , when BJP president Amit Shah trumpeted at a public rally during a recent visit to the state that the party would gain over 20 seats in 2019 and win at least 22 , it raised eyebrows and curled lips .
But some believe that Shah does ind eed have a foolproof pre-election strategy — something known to swing the most resi stant of electorates towards the BJP . “ Shah is focusing on strengthening the orga nisation at the grassroots , which has been the BJP ’ s weakest point in these states ,” says political commentator Tarun Ganguly . A BJP insider confirmed this , “ Wor kers are being sent door to door to win the confidence of voters ,” he tells Outlook . “ For the BJP in Bengal , leadership is not the issue . What was lacking was ground strength …. We are going all out to address the lacuna . This is the only way to take on the ruling party ,” says BJP leader Chandra Kumar Bose .
Like the Left Front in the past , the Trinamool Congress is known for its total control over ground politics , and is prepared to go to any length to defend its overwhelming supremacy . The cycles of violence over the panchayat polls are testimony to that . “ Chief Minister Mam ata Banerjee has a tight grip on the ground ,” psephologist Biswanath Chakraborty tells Outlook . “ She built this up by focusing att ention on the grassroots , sending out cadres to convince people to vote for Trinamool , and she herself covered the
state before the 2011 assembly polls .”
Amit Shah , claim BJP sources , has held over a dozen meetings with leaders and ground workers to chalk out plans of a similar ground assault in Bengal . However , the reality for Mamata in 2011 was vastly different — the congealed anti-incumbency against the Left Front government had gained critical mass and finally breached their bastion , with Mamata offering a viable alternative and drawing away both voters and party workers .
With the Trinamool still having a free run of all political spaces in every corner of Bengal — mind you , Mamata was re-elected in 2016 with a larger majority — the BJP will have to fight for every inch of the turf . The other disadvantage for the BJP here is that it has little hope of commanding the crucial Muslim vote . “ In Bengal , parties have traditionally depended on consolidating the Muslim vote — 27 per cent of the population . And Muslims by and large vote as a community ,” says Ganguly . To this may be added Mamata ’ s persistent , populist woo ing of them — like various public dis tribution schemes for Muslims and a monthly stipend of
One drawback the BJP has is that it does not command the crucial Muslim vote . Shah plans to counter it with high-pitched Hindutva .
PTI
VISION VOTE BJP president Amit Shah at a rally in Purulia , W . Bengal
Rs 2,500 for Imams . Indeed , the cry of ‘ min ority app easement ’ that accompanies such measures is the one vital political issue for the BJP to exploit in Bengal .
Shah ’ s exuding confidence in the teeth of such patent difficulties indicates that there is more to his strategy . Sources say that Shah initiated Bengal-specific tactics during his last visit , including consolidating the Hindu vote . “ Hindus in Bengal have never voted on religious lines ; our brief is to ignite the feelings of Hindutva ,” says a BJP source . Therefore , Shah ’ s parting shots of “ Jai Shri Ram ” at the end of his rallies in Bengal baffled analysts , who thought the BJP would try to win Mus lims over . “ One key issue discussed was the formation of ‘ an army ’ of Internet workers who would send out messages through Whatsapp , Facebook and Twitter ,” adds the source . With more Shah visits planned , is this cause for concern for the TMC ?
Trinamool Rajya Sabha MP Derek O ’ Brien makes light of the BJP ’ s hopes . “ Let ’ s not build castles in the air . BJP has only three members in the state assembly , flopping in every bypoll . Its claims of rising voteshares do not reflect in seats won .” On a strategy the TMC might use to counter the BJP , O ’ Brien says , “ Mamata Banerjee is focused on the two D ’ s — development and diversity , and that endears her to people . Which party will come a distant second or third is not our concern ”. O
16 OUTLOOK 16 July 2018