Mayoral moves
One event that will at least keep the project in the public eye is Manchester’ s mayoral election due to be held in May 2017. For many this will be a pivotal moment in the Northern Powerhouse project as the city chooses a figurehead to drive its devolution agenda.
Economic focus
The primary focus of devolution must be to boost economic growth given that the North has consistently underperformed against the national economy. But does the theory behind the Northern Powerhouse support economic growth?
James Wharton, MP for Stockton and a former minister for Local Growth and the Northern Powerhouse, is one of those who believes it is a key moment. As he told a recent audience of business leaders in the city:“ The mayor will be an important figurehead. If I want to open a business in Manchester then I need to know who to speak to. The mayoral model is recognised the world over as a vehicle for engaging with government.”
But there are others who fear that the merits of the model, tried with varying amounts of success across England over the past 15 years, are debatable. For instance, some councils that introduced a mayoral system in 2002 have since scrapped it, while others such as Liverpool have embraced it.
One of the key issues is the actual power that any mayor can wield, and this is where the challenge is laid bare. Health, housing, schools and social care remain top priorities among the public, but in most cities these powers still rest with Whitehall.
However Manchester, which was granted control of its health and social care in April 2016 as part of a devolution deal, could be different. This has been shown by the interest of some political big-hitters in the future mayoral role such as Andy Burnham MP, who fought unsuccessfully for the Labour leadership last year, but is now his party’ s candidate for Mayor.
Wharton admits that devolution is“ an ever progressing and evolving process” but insists that Manchester is ahead of the game.“ This is an exciting opportunity partly because it is an organic process. It is not about me coming with an identikit stamp and saying this is what devolution should look like. This could be transformational but will only work if driven by those affected. This is ours to own and make a success.”
It is broadly based on the so-called‘ agglomeration’ theory that states that by better connecting cities and regions you will help drive economic growth. However the theory has plenty of critics, many of whom point to the fact that great cities only grow by trading with the rest of the country and the rest of the world.
Ed Cox, Director of IPPR, a Manchester-based think tank, says the drivers of regional economic growth are not just good transport infrastructure but also a strong skills base, innovation, and access to finance.
“ The success of the project should be judged against key criteria such as improving prosperity for all”
He has previously described the Northern Powerhouse as a“ muddle” of these four ideas and questions whether the project is just a proxy for proper regional economic policy. He says the success of the project should be judged against key criteria such as improving prosperity for all, raising the attainment of early years school children, and tackling the democratic deficit.
The IPPR says the dominance of the‘ agglomeration narrative’ is open to question too. It says the empirical evidence for agglomeration effects in Europe – and in the UK in particular – is at best mixed, and even negative in some studies.
It says recent studies have shown that there is no clear relationship between urban scale or density and urban productivity for the UK’ s 14 largest cities other than London.
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