Onshore Energy Conference — London Onshore Energy Conference — London | Page 47
THE P H REPORT
sales will simply plateau at current levels
after 6 consecutive years of growth
US AUTO SALES AND RETAIL SALES AS % OF RETAIL SALES
1992 –TO DATE
35
Autos % GDP
30
5
25
4
20
3
15
2
10
1
2014
2015
2013
2011
2012
2010
2009
2007
2008
2005
2006
2003
2004
2001
2002
1999
2000
1997
1998
1996
1995
1993
1994
1992
5
0
AUTO % GDP
RETAIL % GDP
6
Retail % GDP
0
SOURCE: pH REPORT, US CENSUS BUREAU, US FEDERAL RESERVE
• Retail sales fell from 30% of GDP in
2007 to 28% in 2009, before hitting
a new high of 33% in 2014
• Auto sales were a major cause of the
downturn, falling from $688bn in 2007 to
• $486bn in 2009, as sales of new
cars fell from 16.1m to 10.4m
They then recovered to $840bn in 2015,
meaning that auto sales rose from 3.4% of GDP
in 2009 to 5.1% last year, equal to the 2001 peak
The above analysis also suggests there is
considerable uncertainty over the outlook for
the 2017 – 2020 period, making it advisable
to consider several potential Scenarios:
• Cyclical 30% downturn. History provides a
guide to what can be expected, as sales fell
by 23% between 1973 – 1975, and between
1986 – 1991: they also fell by 32% between
1978 – 1982, and by 39% between 2005 – 2009.
Support for this Scenario also comes from
Ford’s analyst briefing in March, when they
argued they could still be profitable if US
sales fell 30% to 11m, suggesting that this is a
Scenario wh