Onshore Energy Conference — Dubai Onshore Energy Conference — Dubai 01 | Page 30

products. The third is the reduction in
global growth prospects caused by the
impact of today’s ageing global population
and high levels of unemployment among
young people. The fourth is technologically
driven, as ‘the internet of things’ becomes
as ubiquitous as the smartphone.” (ICIS
Chemical Business, 5–11 January 2015)
Of course, all those who claimed oil
prices could never fall below $100/bbl, and
that China’s double-digit economic growth

“Higher stock prices will boost consumer
wealth and help increase confidence,
which can also spur spending”
BEN BERNANKE, 2010
Chairman (then), US Federal Reserve

would continue for decades, will now rush
to claim that they always knew the stimulus
programmes would fail. In a world dominated
by 140-character tweets, and sound-bite news,
they imagine no one will challenge their new
claims. But the old phrase “once bitten, twice
shy” comes to mind. Ask to see examples of
what they were saying a year or even six-months
ago on the subject, before agreeing to follow
their advice this time around. Having argued
with conventional wisdom for some time, I
can guarantee you will quickly unmask most
claims to have foreseen today’s chaotic reality.
My major concern is the vacuum created by
the failure of the stimulus policy to produce the
promised results. What is your business to do
now, faced by overcapacity in most feedstock
and product markets? How can you quickly
reposition to open up sustainable new revenue
and profit streams? What do you have to do
to survive and prosper in this New Normal,
when risks are mounting all around you?

Roadmap for the future
This is the value proposition for our new Study.
We aim to answer the key questions for your
business, and provide a roadmap for the future:
30

What would be the consequences of
$25/bbl oil prices for new olefin and
derivative projects – both shale driven
US projects and China coal-to-olefins?
• What is the potential impact on
cracker operations and petrochemical/
polymer margins of on purpose
propylene production via propylene
dehydrogenation from low-cost LPG?
• What does the potential arrival of the “peak
car” moment in the global autos market
mean for propylene and butadiene (BD)?
• What will be the impact of oversupplied
refining markets on the current by-product
status of benzene and on key derivatives?
• What is the demand outlook for
derivative markets such as purified
terephthalic acid (PTA) that are now
suffering major oversupply? Is this a
wake-up call for other value chains?
• What do these developments mean
for interpolymer competition?
Equally important is that we will
then be able to identify your key
strategies, in four critical areas:
• How can producers andconsumers
position themselves to not only survive
in this uncertain world, but also
build profitable new businesses?
• How can they create more service-based
businesses responding to the megatrends
of food, water, shelter, health and mobility
to establish sustainable profit streams?
• How can companies develop successful
pilot programmes to tap the potential
of the major growth taking place in the
world’s New Old 55+ generation?
• How can investors model the impact of
these developments on future cash and
revenue flows, and build their confidence
over future investment returns?
We are living in very uncertain times. Past
performance is no guarantee of future success
but it remains the best guide we have. I
therefore hope we will have the opportunity
to help you overcome current challenges, and
build a profitable business for the future.