OIL & GAS
BUSINESS
The Editorial
By Redouane MALEK
Algerian Gas : Between the Ponzi Scheme and Croesus ’ Wealth
CONTENTS
It took a government cabinet meeting on gas for the wildest conjectures to be put forward about the future of our gas , our future without gas , or our future with gas . But , what future ? We have to understand between the lines of the statement , geodesic equation after mathematical equation , that Algeria has to produce some 200 billion m3 by 2030 to ensure 40 % of public treasure revenue from gas , to ensure uninterrupted stability for our domestic consumption , and beyond that , to compensate for the end of life of some mega-deposits with other major discoveries . This raises the issue – ignored and avoided because it upsets – of the actual and expected share of unconventional gas resources , currently estimated at 22,000 billion m3 . It is a real hope for tomorrow . Loathed , justly or unjustly today , but unavoidable in a not so far future . Without major discovery , without a gas field of huge value , without a technology to enable a commercially profitable gas , will the issue of shale gas be identified as “ a national priority ” just like renewable energies ? Otherwise , domestic gas consumption will exceed production itself . In that case , Algeria will experience the full force of the Ponzi pyramid syndrome . Conversely , if the actual issue of a cleaner environment surrounding shale gas is settled through a referendum , as the constitution allows it , to determine future options of “ the country ’ s gas survival ” as Croesus once did with his gold wealth , the country will moves away from the spectre of permanent depletion of its conventional gas resources . Terrorism by Daesh , which is a serious threat against the stability of hydrocarbons , continues to grow in Libya , and the warmongers are sure to impact market fundamentals directly . The worsening situation in Libya , which is already in chaos , will lead to lasting instability , from which the energy sector is struggling to emerge after a long convalescence , and Algeria will not go unharmed . Market , prices , agreement , stability , regulation , strategy , terrorism , shale oil and gas : these words and concepts , which were canonized yesterday , are today twisted and abused . It is time for us all to give them the place they deserve . That is why the Algerian government has just launched its first preferred share in this area . Will it be understood ? Will it bring about mobilization beyond political contingencies , doctrinal differences , and political asperities ? Or , will the slight rise in prices , and optimism about a balanced price between $ 50 and $ 70 dollars for the coming months , push away this awakening as a mere round trip ? To be followed … closely .
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Idriss Mounir Laalali An Attack on Algeria would be suicidal for Daesh
OIL & GAS business / NUMÉRO 13 / Mars 2016 / 49