HEALTH, SAFETY & ENVIRONMENT
International Energy Outlook 2019 Projects
Nearly 50% Increase in World Energy Usage
by 2050
In its International Energy Outlook 2019 (IEO2019), the U.S. Energy Information
Administration (EIA) projects that world energy consumption will grow by nearly
50% between 2018 and 2050. EIA projects most of this growth will come from
regions where the consumption of energy is driven by strong economic growth,
particularly in non-OECD Asia. EIA’s annual long-term assessment of world energy
markets includes a Reference case and four core side cases, which use different
assumptions for the projections in each case.
“Energy consumption was greater in Asia than
in any other region in 2018, and we project that
consumption will almost double between 2018
and 2050, making Asia both the largest and
fastest-growing region in the world for energy
consumption,” according to Linda Capuano,
EIA Administrator. “This long-term trend of
Asian energy consumption to support growing
economies strongly influences the extraction,
refining, and transport of oil, natural gas, and
other fuels.”
IEO2019 contains energy consumption
projections for 16 regions of the world.
Projections for the United States in IEO2019
are consistent with those released in the Annual
Energy Outlook 2019. EIA does not intend that
the IEO2019 Reference is the most probable
prediction of the future, but rather it is a baseline
for estimating the effects of policy or technology
changes. The other four cases show the effects of
changing other key model assumptions.
Other significant findings of IEO2019 include:
Manufacturing centers are shifting toward
Africa and South Asia, especially India, resulting
in energy consumption growth in those regions.
Natural gas and petroleum product
consumption is rising in Asia faster than supply
is growing, potentially shifting global trade
patterns and infrastructure investments.
End-use consumption is increasingly shifting
toward electricity.
Falling generation costs, energy consumption
growth, and policy work together to shift the
electricity generation mix.
Manufacturing centers are shifting toward
Africa and South Asia, especially India, resulting
in energy consumption growth
According to EIA’s IEO2019 projection, the
industrial sector, which includes mining,
manufacturing, agriculture, and construction,
accounts for more than 50% of global end-use
energy consumption between 2018 and 2050.
Economic activity for energy-intensive
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manufacturing, which includes production of
iron and steel, food, paper, refined oil products,
non-metallic minerals, aluminum, and basic
chemicals, is increasingly concentrated in
fast-growing economies of Asia.
EIA projects India and China will account for
more than half of global output from energy-
intensive manufacturing between 2018 and
2050 in the Reference case.
Natural gas and petroleum product
consumption is rising in Asia faster than
supply is growing, potentially shifting global
trade patterns and infrastructure investments
The economies in countries outside
theOrganization for Economic Cooperation
and Development (OECD) account for nearly
all of EIA’s projected growth in petroleum
product consumption between 2018 and
2050 in IEO2019, as growing populations
and economic growth result in increased
consumption of energy. Non-OECD Asia
accounts for about three-quarters of EIA’s
projected global increase in liquid fuels
consumption through 2050.
India, in particular, is projected to experience
rapid industrial growth and increased demand
for motorized transportation.
In contrast to energy consumption growth
in Asia, EIA projects in the IEO2019 that
crude oil production will be concentrated in
the Americas, Russia, and the Middle East.
Trade and infrastructure will have to shift to
accommodate the projected production and
consumption changes. Given these overall
economic patterns, natural gas trade and
infrastructure face similar shifts.
End-use consumption is increasingly shifting
toward electricity
Electricity generation increases 79% between
2018 and 2050 in EIA’s IEO2019 projection as
a result of increased electricity consumption
in all end-use sectors.
Electricity will remain the main source of
energy consumed in buildings. In the
residential and commercial sectors, EIA
projects that electricity use will increase
as populations rise, commercial services
expand, and standards of living increase
in non-OECD economies, which, in turn,
will increase the demand for appliances and
personal equipment.
Although the IEO2019 projects that
petroleum and other liquid fuels will
remain the predominant transportation
fuel, electricity use will increase in the
transportation sector as more plug-in electric
vehicles enter the fleet and as electricity use
for rail expands.
In the industrial sector, EIA projects that
emerging economies with developing
industrial sectors have a greater ability to
increase electrification as they implement
newer technologies.
Falling generation costs, energy consumption
growth, and policy work together to shift the
electricity generation mix
More developed OECD and developing non-
OECD economies have vastly different growth
profiles for electricity consumption. On
average, EIA projects in IEO2019 that OECD
consumption of electricity will grow 1.0%
annually between 2018 and 2050, while non-
OECD consumption grows 2.3% annually.
Although renewables are cost-competitive
compared with new fossil-fired electric
generation, displacement of existing non-
renewable generation requires policy
incentives. In OECD countries, policy
initiatives tend to have a stronger effect
on electric generation investment, and
renewables meet most of the growth in
electricity consumption as well as displace
some existing generation.
A mix of renewables and non-renewable
generating technologies meets non-OECD
electricity consumption growth, and this mix
is generally influenced by regional resource
and economic considerations. •