Offshore Guidebook | Real Estate Investor Magazine REIM Offshore 2020 | Page 28

UNITED KINGDOM Britain enjoys crucial export benefits from Europe, being Britain’s biggest source of foreign investment. The business deals circulating between Britain and Europe have made London known for its global financial influence and global centre for financing. For Britain, breaking away from the European union without a deal would mean no access to Europe by Britain’s businesses for business deals — ­ something that is expected to have major impact in the business and economic development of Britain. Business/ investor confidence in Britain Businesses have begun announcing their exit from British businesses due to Brexit. Some are losing confidence in Britain. In fact, investor confidence is largely under threat in the UK as a result of the ongoing Brexit debate... Even local UK companies are suffering from the enforcement of Brexit. Since July 2019, two UK companies revealed that their business has slowed because customers are filled with an outlook of uncertainty. Brexit has gone beyond just being a business growth scare to being a social developmental threat. With major investors and customers at UK’s IT service provider, Micro Focus pulling out of business deals, the company anticipates a weak revenue for the year 2019. For this company, Brexit seems to have “flagged a freeze” on the company’s spending. Additionally, in terms of advancing the company’s objective of offering employment opportunities to the UK society, the company has been dented, as it has partly failed to live up to its objective. Economists in the UK are speculating that UK will be hit by a recession as a result of the stalling Brexit debate. Offshore property buyers in the UK With varying thoughts between political parties in the UK’s House of Commons, the way in which Britain will exit from the European Union is not clear. However, the economic uncertainty (caused by the long Brexit debate) has affected the housing market in Britain. Property sales have dropped in some areas in the UK, and the sales volume in the year 2019 have also dropped in comparison to previous years. If a ‘no-deal’ divorce between Britain and the EU takes effect, the UK is most likely going to be at a default position. According to the accountancy firm, KPMG, “house prices in the UK would fall by about 6% minimum on a no-deal Brexit.” In a worst- 26 OFFSHORE GUIDEBOOK 2020 case scenario house prices would fall by about 20%. Moreover, the Office for Budget Responsibility in the UK announced that a 10% house-drop in the middle of the year, 2021 is expected. In February 2019, Bank of England Governor – Mark Carney said, “UK growth would be guaranteed to fall in the event of a no-deal Brexit.” It cannot be disputed that the falling of property prices in the UK is advantageous to offshore property buyers, depending on their investment intentions. For residential purposes the price drop could be of great benefit. However, for real estate investors, buying property to let and turning these houses into commercial buildings (depending on their locations) the drop in the house market in the UK could pose a threat to the growth of their businesses. This is due to the economic and business growth instability in the UK as a result of Brexit. “Recent price drops in some regions mean that it’s becoming more of a buyers’ market, so you might be able to get a good deal. Besides, buying a property should generally be regarded as a long- term investment and, even if there is a short-term price drop, house prices will probably stabilise in the future,” says Mortgage expert, David Blake. AD Property sellers A drop in home prices in the UK hits hard on home- sellers. A house price index released in November 2019 revealed that it has taken home sellers longer to sell off properties recently than in previous years. It has taken about 77 days on average to get one property sold if listed in January. It is believed by many that the demographics are as a result of apprehension in buyers about buying a home before the elections and until they have more clarity on Brexit. Chief executive at NAEA Propertymark, Mark Hayward said, “Brexit is undoubtedly causing uncertainty in the housing market, which in turn affects sentiment and decision-making. The impending general election period is just providing more uncertainty and we’re seeing both buyers and sellers put their plans on hold as a result. Once the election has passed, and there’s clarity on how and when we’ll be leaving the EU, we hope there will be a degree of certainty which may trigger a flurry of activity.” SOURCES The Guardian, The New York Times, NAEA Propertymark Investing in overseas property is smart. Doing it without experts is not. Consult the experts. HURST & WILLS LONDON | CAPE TOWN Contact Hurst & Wills for independent offshore property advice today. www.hurstandwills.com | [email protected]