LaboUr Market-the missing dimension in the OECS Economic Inquiry
With the exception of St. Lucia the author is unaware of any OECS member state that has a significantly long time series on labour market variables such as employment, hours worked or earnings to allow for meaningful relevant economic inquiry. For the most part, objective information about the labour market is only available via the mechanism of national population censuses and occasional studies including national poverty assessments. This presents at least two problems to the economic investigator, the first is one of periodicity (observations occurs every ten years or thereabout) and the second is one of informational sufficiency (as only a limited number of labour market variables are covered in the census).
This state of affairs becomes even more lamentable when one considers the historically relatively high level of unemployment in the OECS as illustrated in table 1 below. Furthermore as evidenced from Caribbean countries with recent labour market statistics, the current unemployment rate has probably risen significantly above those indicated in the (last line of the) table since the great recession circa 2008.
Table 1: Unemployment Rates for the OECS & Select CARICOM States
The OECS in partnership with the ILO developed a project to begin to remedy this informational deficit. According to Sean Mathurin- project coordinator, “to date the OECS Labour Force Survey (LFS) has been successfully implemented in Dominica, Grenada and St. Kitts & Nevis, and the intent is to build on that success and continue the implementation of the OECS LFS in the other OECS Member States, with the anticipation that the OECS Labour Force Survey will be conducted at least, on a yearly basis.”
Mr. Mathurin’s desires are shared by all economists with an interest in the OECS. The importance of timely LFSs extends far beyond estimating the rate of unemployment, as critical as that is. Without a proper understanding of developments in the labour market, it is flatly impossible to execute proper economic inquiry. As a case in point, it may be argued that the basis of improved price competitiveness (which in a globalised environment is critical for the economic survival of small states) is increased labour productivity that exceeds the rate of increase in wages. Here again the economist is unable to speak definitively about the trajectories of productivity and /or wages, the exception again being St. Lucia. Yet the data for St. Lucia (to the extent that it may be reflective of other OECS member states) suggest that there is reason for the OECS to be particularly concerned about labour productivity.