The overall movement in annual trend statistics is proving to be a false-positive situation , as every market ’ s average rent level decreased from August to September by the dollar amounts shown at the top of each metro bar . The changing of the data series for calculating trends produced this aberration . The current movement in rent levels is a more important measure of market conditions than activity from 12 months ago .
What this means for 2023 and 2024
2023 continues to be a challenging year as supply and demand issues persist . These markets are running out of time to show any significant occupancy or rent improvements for 2023 , particularly as we enter the end-of-year seasonal slowness that typically drags on through January .
2024 is shaping up to be another challenging year with construction levels reaching numbers that are historically significant . These hefty new construction levels will impact the remainder of 2023 through 2024 , which will be considered poor timing , as job growth is settling back into longterm averages . The rising level of new units will keep a lid on Class A rent growth as concessions increase in quantity and magnitude .
A big question mark concerning the direction of 2024 ’ s performance is whether move-outs will continue to persist , or if they will ease to allow occupancy in Class B , C and D product to improve . If the SFR rental market continues its growth , 2024 will look very similar to 2023 when a flat rental trend performance was considered a win .
33 OCTOBER 2023 | WWW . SAAAONLINE . ORG