ARTS & CULTURE
16 Obiter Dicta
Oscar Watch 2015:
Best Picture Predictions and then some
ê The ensemble cast of Boston Globe reporters in “Spotlight”, my frontrunner for Best Picture. Photo credit: Open Road
justin philpott › staff writer
W
ith November well underway, Oscar
season is in full gear. It is the most wonderful time of the year for movie fans like
me. From the end of September until the
middle of January is where studios typically position
releases of their ‘award-worthy’ films. This puts us
smack in the middle of a busy period, and thankfully,
because we need something to distract us from exams
around the corner. A good film presents the perfect
escape from the daily grind and can be just what’s
needed to clear one’s head. With this is mind, I would
like to make some early Oscar predictions and along
the way highlight some of the films that should be on
your ‘watch radar’.
What am I basing my predictions on? An endless
number of factors: the cast, the director, the trailer,
the plot, the genre, previous Oscar wins/body of
work, typical voting patterns, size of studio (major/
indie), the reviews, release date, general buzz, boxoffice numbers, and my general gut feeling. Many
Oscar hopefuls have already been released and more
are slated to be released in the coming weeks. I have
seen several of the films mentioned below (“Steve
Jobs”, “Room”, “Bridge of Spies”, “Sicario”, “Mad Max:
Fury Road”, “The Martian”); however, the majority I
have not. This makes everything that much more
challenging - there is a chance I could make a complete fool of myself. The following are my predictions
for this year’s Best Picture award (ranked in order of
nomination likelihood):
Spotlight (Open Road)
An all-star ensemble cast, an up-and-coming director, positive reviews out of TIFF - “Spotlight” has it
all going for it. It tells the Pulitzer Prize winning story
of how Boston Globe reporters uncovered the massive
scandal of child molestation and cover-up within the
local Catholic Archdiocese in the early 2000s. It is my
frontrunner to take Best Picture and is a virtual lock
to receive a nomination. I predict that Tom McCarthy
wins Best Director and gets a nomination for Best
Original Screenplay with co-writer Josh Singer. I
could also see it earning a couple Supporting Actor
nominations, most likely for Michael Keaton and
Mark Ruffalo. It was just released on November 13th
in select theatres.
Room (A24)
Winner of the People’s Choice Award at TIFF, “Room”
appears poised for a Best Picture nomination. The
trailer itself is moving. The film tells the harrowing story a 5-year-old boy and his mother and how
they escape from the room in which they are being
held prisoners. The small room is all the boy has ever
known, what he knows of life is what his mother has
taught him. The film’s director, Lenny Abrahamson,
and the cast are relatively unknown and the plot
might be too emotionally-angled to win Best Picture.
However, I do think that Brie Larson will win for Best
Actress and Emma Donoghue will be nominated for
Best Adapted Screenplay of her own novel. It is in
select theatres now.
The Reverent (20th Century Fox)
The trailer looks awesome and you have Leonardo
DiCaprio and Tom Hardy starring. It is a period piece
set in the 1820s in which a frontiersman seeks vengeance against those who left him for dead after a bear
mauling. However, the film is directed by Alejandro
González Iñárritu, whose film “Birdman” won Best
Picture and Best Director last year. Never in the history of the Academy Awards has the same director had
a film win in back-to-back years. It has not screened
yet, but this would be my frontrunner if “Birdman”
did not win last year. It should surely get a nomination. Iñárritu will get additional nominations for Best
Director and Adapted Screenplay, but will not win. I
predict that this is the year that DiCaprio finally wins
a Best Actor Oscar. I’ve have heard insane stories
about he nearly gave himself hypothermia to make his
performance more realistic. It opens on January 8th.
The Hateful Eight (The Weinstein Company)
Quentin Tarantino. Need I say more? His last two films
“Django Unchained” (2012) and “Inglorious Basterds”
(2009) both received Best Picture nominations. The
plot focuses on a group of bounty hunters who become
involved in a web of betrayal while seeking shelter during a blizzard in post-civil war Wyoming. The
trailer doesn’t pull me too hard, and the plot sounds
similar to Django Unchained; but, Tarantino has
earned the benefit of the doubt and I will take a leap
of faith on this, as of yet, unscreened film. I don’t see
Tarantino getting a Best Director nomination this
year because he will be a major contender to win Best
Original Screenplay. It opens January 8th, the same
day as “The Reverent”. I know where I’ll be.
The Martian (20th Century Fox)
Frankly, I would be content if “The Martian” was not
nominated. It was too light-hearted and geared for
mass audiences for me to view it is as anything more
than a crowd-pleasing blockbuster. However, it did
incredibly well at the box-office due in large part to a
massive marketing campaign and was well received by
basically everyone who has seen it. In “The Martian”,
astronaut Mark Watney becomes the ‘MacGyver of
Mars’ using science and ingenuity to survive until
being rescued. Sci-Fi’s are typically overlooked come
Oscar-time; however, Matt Damon and Ridley Scott
are household names and the film’s success will likely
overcome this detractor. It should secure nominations
in a number of technical categories and probably a
Best Director nomination for Ridley Scott’s return to
form. Damon may also eke out a Best Actor nomination over Tom Hanks (“Bridge of Spies”) and last year’s
winner Eddie Redmayne (“The Danish Girl”). “The
Martin” is now playing in theatres.
» see oscars, page 22