Northwest Aerospace News PNAA 2021 ADVANCE | Page 84

Boeing ’ s second 777-9 takes off from Paine Field in Everett for its first flight on April 30 , 2020 . This is one of four 777-9 flight-test airplanes for the program , which has hundreds of orders from several leading carriers . Source : Boeing

MARKET OUTLOOK

DARREN HULST Vice President , Commercial Marketing The Boeing Company
There ’ s no doubt 2020 has been the most challenging year in commercial aviation ’ s history . As communities grapple with COVID- 19 ’ s effects on health , families , businesses and daily life , our industry continues to be severely affected in nearly all markets .
For those who love airplanes and air travel , it ’ s painful to describe the year ’ s trajectory . In the early months of the pandemic , passenger flights essentially came to a halt with airlines parking thousands of planes . By the third quarter , domestic air traffic across global markets had improved to about 50 % of normal – mainly driven by recovery in China – while international travel has remained about 90 % below 2019 figures .
To summarize our forecast : the pandemic ’ s unprecedented challenges will significantly affect near-term demand for commercial airplanes and services . We project it will take about three years for passenger traffic to return to 2019 levels and a few years beyond that to return to the longterm trend of 5 % annual growth .
Yet the fundamentals that have driven commercial aviation for five decades – and doubled air traffic over the past two decades – remain intact . Travel , tourism and trade account for 10 % of global GDP , supporting tens of millions of jobs . Billions of people have never flown but have or will gain the means to do so . The world will need many more airplanes to fulfill inevitable demand , indicating a robust , long-term future for commercial aviation and the Pacific Northwest ’ s incredibly successful aerospace sector .
Industry challenges have not abated . In November , the International Air Transport Association ( IATA ) projected that airlines would lose nearly $ 120 billion in 2020 and nearly $ 40 billion in 2021 . IATA also forecast carriers will require as much as $ 80 billion in additional government aid to survive through next year .
Boeing recently issued the 2020 Commercial Market Outlook ( CMO ), our annual forecast of demand for commercial airplanes and services . We have shared the CMO for nearly 60 years through good times , bad times and normal times . We believe it ’ s even more important today to provide our perspective and analysis of drivers of demand over the long term .
Source : Boeing
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PNAA ADVANCE / 2021