Sizing up Christie’s run for President
LEGISLATIVE REPORT
Now that Chris Christie has announced he is a
Republican candidate for President, the question
that is most often obviously asked is, “Can he win?”
There are plenty of scenarios that can lead to starkly
different answers. The second question that tends
to follow is “Will he step down as governor?” That
question appears to have been answered. But
ROB NIXON unless something seismic occurs, in the state or in
the race, New Jersey is in for an unprecedented and
complex time for at least the next eight months.
To win the nomination, an individual needs to rely on a number
of fleeting factors: money, personality, experience, determination,
message, timing and luck. It would take far more than a magazine
article to properly analyze how Christie shapes up to these factors.
So let’s take a few key points that lie ahead of the campaign.
The Christie haters and the New Jersey press have obviously
made up their minds about his chances. Many articles following
his announcement, including some from national media outlets,
refer to the campaign as a “long shot” or “four years too late.” But
in the bright light of political reality, that may be a bit premature.
The most important factor, outside of the candidate themselves,
is money. Candidates will raise, and spend, tens of millions of dollars each the next few months. But candidates who lose in early
primaries will see that that their donors will move on to give to others they perceive can win. When the money dries up, candidates
quickly drop out.
There is little doubt Christie will be able to raise significant sums
of money to stay in the race well into 2016. A negative story, a bad
debate performance or a loss in an early primary tends to dry up
donations and that almost instantly ends their campaign. But
Christie is a great fundraiser and he has developed a team of
mega-rich donors and a “Super PAC” that practically assures he
will not run out of money during his race. Access to campaign cash
means he will continue to travel, run ads and push his message to
compete with his negative polling numbers.
The current polls seem to indicate that Christie is a second-tier
candidate, but they are in reality a snapshot in the past and often
they teach candidates how to fix themselves or hurt their opponents enough to move up. Plus, polls on Christie’s duties in New
Jersey take into account Democrats and independents who have
soured on their prior acceptance, and they represent a group that
is mainly irrelevant in a GOP Primary. In many ways, political spin
can be employed to use those numbers to build the Christie message for President – that he doesn’t need to be loved to be effective
and that he is just what the country needs now.
We are far too close to the situation to see the entire picture. The
Presidential race won’t actually get to us until the Republican Primary in June 2016. But the real race for the nomination begins in
February and March when voters go to the polls for primary elections in Iowa, New Hampshire and other key states. And that is
important to remember. Chris Christie is no longer speaking to a
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JULY 2015
New Jersey audience, and he is not at all concerned if the StarLedger editorial board approves of him or whether public employees picket his appearances.
New Jersey residents need to remember who Chris Christie is
trying to impress. GOP primary voters tend to be more conservative than the average New Jersey voter, and they were not paying
attention to whether the governor called pensions a “sacred trust”
or whether he intentionally underfunded the pension system. So
a protest from New Jersey employees is only going to set the governor up nicely to roll into his stump speech about “telling it like it
is” and “making hard decisions.” And that, quite honestly, is going
to drive New Jersey public employees to the brink of insanity.
There is no question, regardless of how one feels about him, that
the governor has a gift for public speaking and for conveying
authority and conviction. That doesn’t mean what he says is accurate, but in Presidential politics accuracy is less effective than the
delivery and the message itself. Compared to the field of more than
a dozen GOP candidates, Chris Christie is not going to lose a
debate on style unless he decides to mock, ridicule or personally
attack a fellow candidate. Other candidates, however, know he can
be baited to attack and some of them are likely dreaming for a sitdown-and-shut-up moment. That may work, to some effect, in
Jersey but it simply won’t be viewed as Presidential in a primary
campaign.
Christie’s opponents have lots of ammo. The economy here lags
behind other states. He has fluctuated his positions on some core
conservative GOP issues. He is far too close to Democrats for
some, and I am sure the picture of him hugging President Obama
after Hurricane Sandy hit is going to find its way into mailboxes
and on TV if he starts moving up the ranks. That is even before you
mention the “Bridgegate” issue. And he isn’t running against Barbara Buono this time around, so rest assured if opposing candidates need to use their opposition research on him, they will hit
the governor where it hurts.
Christie’s chances to win the GOP nomination hinge in many
ways on winning an early primary, notably New Hampshire. If he
gets bl