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NEW JERSEY COPS ■ FEBRUARY 2015
An economic outlook for 2015 and
what it means on the home front
Here we go...
The level of fragility that exists in today's global
economy never ceases to amaze. Like a spider web,
its intricacy can be both beautiful and act as an
enhancement to its ultimate tensile strength, but
there are times when that same intricacy creates a
fast unwinding. Let me explain:
The U.S. is recovering nicely relative to the rest of
the world. Unemployment is down, home prices
JEFFREY
are up, the stock market is at an all-time high and
ROSEN
the third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP),
the value of the production of goods and services in
the U.S., adjusted for price changes, increased at an
annual rate of a whopping 5 percent. In the meantime, other areas
of the global economy are not doing so well. China is slowing, Japan
is stuck in a deflationary spiral, Europe is, in technical terms, a redhot mess, a default by Russia on its debt payments is becoming
more likely with every passing hour, and the Middle East is always
on the brink of some kind of war.
Much of this has been going on for some time so what's changed
which has the potential to affect our operating environment this
year?
I have three letters for you: O - I - L
You might not be aware of this, but Middle Eastern greed and
smart Fracking technology have finally caught up with one another
and produced an environment in which the U.S. is now a net
exporter of oil and gas. Yes, an exporter. This, plus slowing demand
for oil from China and the U.S., have helped bring oil fr