2017 Election Analysis
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ator Jim Whelan had already planned to retire at the end of this term before his untimely death last month changed the dynamics in the district. The suddenly open Senate seat was filled by Democrat Colin Bell. But according to many analysts, the favorite to take the seat is Republican Assemblyman Chris Brown. Brown has developed an independent streak in Trenton, defying Governor Christie on major issues like the takeover of Atlantic City, and he has become one of the State PBA’ s most passionate supporters in the State House.
The Assembly race features incumbent Democrat Vince Mazzeo and his running mate John Armato. They are challenged by Republicans Vince Sera and Brenda Taube. The GOP is hopeful that Chris Brown’ s popularity will lead him to the Senate and that he will have coattails to bring along his running mates. The Democrats believe that intense PAC support, TV ads and Murphy’ s popularity will keep the Senate seat in their hands and that it will be enough to take back Brown’ s Republican Assembly seat.
Also factoring into this race is the election for Atlantic City mayor. The Atlantic City PBA has endorsed incumbent Mayor Don Guardian, who has been a major partner and protector of his officers as the state takeover has sought to decimate their ranks.
PBA-ENDORSED CANDIDATES: Brown for Senate; Mazzeo and Sera for Assembly
District 11
The Monmouth County 11th District has, despite its changes in redistricting, leaned Republican for much of the past 25 years. That changed in 2015 when Democrats Joann Downey and Eric Houghtaling defeated two GOP incumbent assemblywomen by a slim margin.
Since that day, Democrats have been trying to fortify the assembly seats. The incumbents are being challenged by local Republican elected officials Rob Acerra and Michael Whelan.
But perhaps more important to members is the race for State Senate in the District. Jennifer Beck is the Republican incumbent, and she has represented most of the district in the Assembly and Senate since 2006. Although she has struck out an independent streak as a Senator, she has been a passionate supporter of the pension and benefit changes that the governor has pushed, and she has made eliminating sick leave payouts for officers a signature issue. She is being challenged by Democrat Vin Gopal. Gopal has run a campaign focused on middle-class issues of jobs and property taxes while building coalitions of labor groups, including the State PBA and FMBA.
The race could be the closest in the state on Election Day and very well could be the most costly when it is all totaled. The Murphy / Guadagno matchup will also play a large part in the results as turnout will certainly be higher than in 2015, especially since both candidates live in the county. Great GOP turnout in town such as Colts Neck, Freehold and Ocean( where Acerra is deputy mayor) will give them an edge, while Democrats will be pushing to maximize their vote totals in more reliable towns such as Asbury Park, Long Branch and Neptune.
PBA-ENDORSED CANDIDATES: Gopal for Senate; Downey and Houghtaling for Assembly
District 16
The Somerset-Middlesex-Hunterdon district could be among the most strangely designed out of all 40 in the state. With a mixture of heavily conservative and heavily liberal communities packed next to typical New Jersey suburbia, it produced an election in 2015 that by a slim margin left residents with a Republican senator and both a Democrat and Republican assemblyman.
Republican State Senator Kip Bateman, a longtime incumbent, is expected to retain his seat against Democrat Laurie Poppe. The major focus in this district will be the fight for the two assembly seats.
Democrats are running incumbent Andrew Zwicker and challenger Roy Freiman against Republicans Donna Simon, a former assemblywoman, and Somerset County Freeholder Mark Caliguire. In 2015, Zwicker defeated Simon by just 78 votes and Republicans have longed for a chance at a do-over. A number of factors will come into play as voters go to the poll: the strength of“ Get Out The Vote”( GOTV) operations by both parties in their heaviest partisan towns, the tightness of the governor’ s race and local elections such as the mayor’ s race in South Brunswick. Any of these leaning toward the GOP or Democrats could swing the race.
PBA-ENDORSED CANDIDATES: Bateman for Senate; Zwicker for Assembly
While these are just three highlighted races, voters will ultimately decide which districts will be competitive on Election Day. Democratic and Republican campaign professionals see far more opportunities on the ground and both sides remain optimistic in a number of below-the-radar areas. For example, Democrats continue to build a message that the reliably Republican 39th District in Bergen County is competitive and ripe for an upset. Republicans believe NJEA efforts to unseat Senate President Sweeney in District 3 could have long-range impact not only if they succeed, but especially if it keeps Sweeney pinned down at home instead of raising money for other candidates across the state, as a person in his position would be doing this time of year.
A full list of State PBA endorsed candidates is on page 40. Endorsements must be followed if they are to have impact. Voting to support an endorsed candidate can challenge the normal political leanings of some people. But when they are respected, State PBA endorsements are designed to secure the well-being of members and their families.
Politics can be difficult to watch and no one, especially law enforcement officers, want to be told what to do. Voting as a block solidifies your power in Trenton. Publicly ridiculing the union on social media and actively working against it weakens you significantly. These are tried-and-true realities of group politics. It is much easier to take down an organization one member at a time than it is to defeat it as a solid group. That, sadly, is the lesson of the 2009 governor’ s race, and PBA members haven’ t stopped paying for that error in judgment since.
As I have said in the past, in times of political change when the future of your profession and your benefits are literally on the line, State PBA members should look beyond Republican and Democrat and vote as a member of the“ PBA Party.” d
44 NEW JERSEY COPS ■ OCTOBER 2017