2016 Election Analysis
LEGISLATIVE REPORT
What we learned from Trump, what will happen to the governor and what’ s in our political future?
The American voters, viewed for months through the lenses of polls and punditry, finally had a chance to express themselves on Election Day and what they collectively revealed is a nation divided and frustrated. But mixed within that frustration was a large measure of confidence that giving the reins of power of the most powerful nation on earth to Donald
ROB NIXON Trump, a man with zero political experience, was preferable to rewarding the election to the professional political class embodied by Hillary Clinton. The“ Silent Majority” woke up the day after the election to discover having elected a person who campaigned to be their very loud and in-your-face voice.
And here’ s what that could mean … President Trump
Donald Trump’ s election as the 45th U. S. President is stunning and historic. Nearly every professional poll, and almost every TV talking head, gave Trump next-to-no chance to beat Clinton. His victory reflects a massive shift in what was expected to be a“ predictable” electorate. Easy comparisons are hard to find. The last four GOP Presidential campaigns since 2000 did little to expand the Electoral College map Republican candidates have found increasingly limited. But Donald Trump did what no GOP Presidential candidate since Ronald Reagan in 1980 could do – win in the blue-collar, Rust Belt states Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin and Michigan that the Democrats felt had been locked down from the start.
The numbers tell several stories. Donald Trump will become President but could lose the popular vote, albeit by a small margin out of more than 100 million votes cast. That effectively means the nation was evenly divided in its decision-making and closer inspection of the battleground states is even more striking. For example, Trump carried Pennsylvania by less than 70,000 votes out of nearly 6 million cast. He took Wisconsin by slightly more than 27,000 votes. And he took Michigan by slightly less than 13,000 votes. Put this into perspective: A Republican hasn’ t won those three states in the same election since Reagan’ s re-election in 1984.
And despite being hammered as anti-immigrant, anti-African American and anti-woman, Trump exceeded prior GOP Presidential candidate vote percentages for Hispanics and African Americans. And the data also indicates that the first female presidential candidate couldn’ t run up numbers against Trump, especially with white women.
But this was an election that had more to do with voter anxiety, frustration and a candidate willing to challenge the status
quo of the political elitism many saw from those in the government than it does with data analysis. Donald Trump ran the most unorthodox major party presidential campaign in modern times. He was unscripted. He was unpredictable. He was brash. And his supporters didn’ t care. He spoke to them about their jobs and their security, and very bluntly promised that he would fix it. Voters who didn’ t actually seem to like either candidate pulled the trigger almost asking themselves as Trump himself had suggested:“ What do you have to lose?”
This election also suggests that polling and political consultants misread the average American voter repeatedly by failing to properly see Trump’ s connection with them since the primaries. And in politics, there is nothing more dangerous at the polls than taking for granted a candidate who is self-confident, knows marketing and has a loyal following. To some degree, there was an assumption coming into 2016 that Clinton could not lose, especially to Trump, and that a built-in electoral advantage, a growing voter base that was leaning Democratic and the optics of electing a woman president would be plenty to get her to the White House.
The electoral analysis of this race will take place for decades, and books will be written on just how Trump won. But in some ways, Clinton played it safe like a football team protecting a big lead in the fourth quarter: laughing off a few field goals until the turnovers and momentum led to one Hail Mary touchdown after another. When the clock ran out, they lost on the last play of the game.
The election will also be remembered for what didn’ t happen. Hillary Clinton was going to make history as the first woman to be elected U. S. President. She had name recognition, was battle-tested and experienced and had hundreds of millions of dollars to spend on the race. Most analysts believed she had a vaunted field operation that would turn out votes and cut off Donald Trump’ s path to victory in every key battleground state. But voters were more concerned with uncertainty about the economy and dissatisfaction with the government to fall in line that“ it was her turn.” Could Mr. Christie go to Washington?
Donald Trump must now transition quickly from campaign to governing mode. He will be President in January, and between now and then he must form a government that can hit the ground the moment he takes his hand off the Bible on Inauguration Day. It is within that activity that New Jersey comes into play.
Governor Christie, one of Trump’ s earliest establishment supporters, has been serving as Chair of the Trump Transition Team in the event that he won. The transition team actively
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