LEGISLATIVE REPORT
2018 Election Analysis
Trump effect drives voters to polls,
boosts Democrats in NJ
Midterm elections in recent history have served
as a litmus test for the sitting president. The re-
sults through the years have led to the political
party opposing the president to win seats in the
Congress. And absent a hot race with a major is-
sue, the midterm elections are usually marked by
low voter turnout. But 2018 is not like other years,
mostly because Donald Trump is nothing like the
ROB NIXON presidents who came before him.
There was a clear passion in the intent of the
voters who braved wind and rain across New Jer-
sey on Election Day 2018. And if any election can be a referendum
on a president – pro and con – the attitude of voters showed it to
be this year.
Democrats in New Jersey built on their statewide electoral
dominance by riding an anti-Trump wave and selecting candi-
dates who fit their districts well. The anti-Trump passion was also
matched in many traditional GOP regions of the state, where Re-
publicans turned out the vote to insulate their candidates.
But a large Democratic voter registration dominance, one that
is growing in some formerly GOP strongholds, was too much
for many Republican candidates to withstand. When the smoke
clears – and vote-by-mail and provisional ballots may take days to
count in some counties – Democrats will have had a good show-
ing in New Jersey and across the U.S.
Let’s assess some of the big stories from Election 2018:
Menendez wins re-election following ugly campaign
In a state well known for nasty, take-no-prisoners campaigning,
the 2018 U.S. Senate race set a new standard. Plagued by a federal
indictment, incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Menendez was
targeted by nonstop campaign ads reminding voters of the alle-
gations made against him. Former pharmaceutical CEO Republi-
can Bob Hugin repeatedly hammered Menendezon it for months
and heavy GOP PAC spending raised the volume on the campaign
much more than in prior years.
We can debate that absent Democratic enthusiasm to send
President Trump a message, Hugin could have pulled off a stun-
ning upset. But the longtime senator and a focused Democratic
machine gave voters a different choice: elect a Republican who
will be with the president or vote for an experienced Democrat
who will fight for New Jersey against the president. In light of that
reasoning, voters felt comfortable enough to overlook the allega-
tions against Menendez.
Dems dominate House races
Democrats won control of the U.S. House of Representatives,
in part because their New Jersey candidates took three Republi-
can seats without an incumbent losing a race. Depending on the
results of one tight race, New Jersey may start 2019 with only one
Republican member of Congress.
Jeff Van Drew going to Congress
One of the few surprises of the election was the success of Dem-
ocratic State Senator Jeff Van Drew in his race to succeed retiring
Republican Congressman Frank LoBiondo in New Jersey’s 2nd
Congressional District. Van Drew had built a record that matched
his district – moderate to conservative on many issues, an advo-
cate for Atlantic City and an opponent of higher taxes in Trenton.
Van Drew was long considered the heir apparent in the 2nd Dis-
trict.
MacArthur-Kim closest race in the state
Republican 3rd District Congressman Tom MacArthur and his
Democratic challenger were separated by a few hundred votes at
the end of election night. Both parties turned out their base and
10
NEW JERSEY COPS
■ NOVEMBER 2018
the results showed it. MacArthur ran up a huge lead in the GOP
stronghold of Ocean County, while Kim matched him by winning
the Democratic-leaning Burlington County section of the district.
The race was decided after counting vote-by-mail and provisional
ballots in the days following the election.
Gottheimer easily protects his seat
First-term incumbent Democrat Josh Gottheimer easily with-
stood a challenge in the formerly Republican 5th Congressional
District. Gottheimer was able to run up his vote totals in Bergen
County and win easily despite losing to his challenger in the other
three counties in the district. Lacking a well-financed and seri-
ous GOP challenger from Bergen County or a move away from the
center-right lean of the district, Gottheimer may prove to be a lock
in the seat for years to come.
Lance loses
Longtime GOP legislator Leonard Lance has lost his re-election
bid to former Obama administration member Tom Malinowski.
Lance had built a name for himself as a moderate and fiscal hawk
dating back to his time in the NJ State Legislature. But the Trump
effect and a growing Democratic lean to the 7th District cost the
venerable congressman in a close race.
Democrats flip 11th District
In one of the most high-profile seat flips in Congress, former
Navy pilot Mikie Sherrill defeated Republican Assemblyman Jay
Webber to take away a GOP seat in Congress few would have con-
sidered competitive a few years ago. Sherrill ran against the cul-
ture in Washington and painted her opponent as “out of touch”
with the district.
NJ State Legislature Special Elections
The undercard on Election Day included a handful of special
elections for seats in the state legislature. Democrats easily held
these seats and none were expected to be hotly contested, includ-
ing:
• 5th District: Assemblyman William Spearman was elected to
complete an unexpired term.
• 15th District: Assemblywoman Verlina Reynolds Jackson and
Assemblyman Anthony Verrelli were elected to complete un-
expired terms.
• 22nd District: Assemblywoman Linda Carter was elected to
complete an unexpired term.
• 32nd District: Assemblyman Pedro Mejia was elected to com-
plete an unexpired term.
• 34th District: Assemblywoman Britnee Timberlake was elect-
ed to complete an unexpired term.
• 36th District: Assemblyman Clinton Calabrese was elected to
complete an unexpired term.
• 38th District: Senator Joe Lagana, Assemblyman Chris Tully
and Assemblywoman Lisa Swain were elected to complete
unexpired terms.
County Races
The passion that drove voters out for national elections trickled
down to freeholder races across New Jersey. Democrats were able
to win two freeholder seats in Somerset County for the first time
in nearly 40 years. Democrats also took control of the Burlington
County Freeholder Board. Democrats in Bergen County contin-
ued their winning streak at the county level and elected Anthony
Cureton as Sheriff.
The day wasn’t all bad news for the GOP, however, as Republi-
cans maintained their dominance in freeholder elections in Mor-
ris, Monmouth and Ocean counties and swept seats in Atlantic
and Salem counties.