LEGISLATIVE REPORT
2017 Election Analysis
Democratic wave sweeps across New Jersey
In a number of races , some decisive and some surprising , Democratic candidates won on Election Day 2017 at every level of government . Democrats will enter 2018 with control of the governor ’ s office and their largest legislative majorities in decades . Republican candidates not only lost at the state level but were stunned in county and local races in places that raise serious questions about the impact of Governor
ROB NIXON
Christie ’ s legacy and stewardship of his party during the past eight years . While it is impossible to predict how the new governor and his Democratic allies in Trenton will work together , what is certain is that New Jersey is theirs to control for the next four years .
Here ’ s a review of Election Day ’ s stories of impact :
Murphy Routs Guadagno
Phil Murphy , the former Wall Street executive and ambassador to Germany , easily won his first race for public office with a 12-point victory over Republican Lieutenant Governor Kim Guadagno . While Guadagno spent the final weeks of the campaign with a confidence that she was steadily closing the gap on Murphy , she was unable to overcome the Democratic electoral advantage , Murphy ’ s fundraising edge and voters ’ fatigue with Chris Christie .
Murphy defined his positions early and didn ’ t shy away from them throughout the campaign . He pursued a strategy that was highly progressive , even for New Jersey , on issues like taxes , corporate benefits , immigration and workers ’ rights . An ally of public employee labor unions from the start , he rallied citizens who felt alienated and abused under the Christie administration . And he spent months tying the lieutenant governor to the unpopularity of the governor .
That message , and Democratic campaign efforts , worked across the board . While some will suggest that the race was a referendum on President Trump and the GOP generally , to do so misses some obvious points . First , Trump was not competitive in New Jersey in 2016 , and Guadagno ran slightly ahead of Trump ’ s take of the vote in 2016 . Second , a number of competitive local races and high-profile state legislature races motivated Democratic-leaning , unaffiliated voters to the polls . Finally , fairly or unfairly , Governor Christie ’ s current unpopularity was difficult for Guadagno to untangle from her record .
It is also interesting to look at the 2017 election in comparison to the 2013 governor ’ s race , the high-water mark of the Christie administration . In his 2013 race , he defeated his Democratic challenger by nearly 400,000 votes . Voter turnout was approximately 40 percent across the state . The 2017 election showed those totals nearly flipped . With statewide voter turnout a few percentage points below 2013 , Murphy took more than 1.1 million votes to Guadagno ’ s nearly 871,000 votes . When combined with the Democrats ’ built-in voter registration advantage over Republicans in NJ , it appears that Guadagno lost the unaffiliated and Democratic voters who had flocked to Christie in 2013 .
Murphy also did what Democratic candidates are expected to do to win . His campaign crushed Guadagno in its base counties . He took the Democratic strongholds of Essex and Hudson counties with nearly 80 percent of the vote , including a 90,000-vote landslide in Essex alone . He won heavily populated counties like Bergen , Union and Passaic handily . And while Guadagno was able to win in nine of the state ’ s 21 counties , her vote totals in those mostly rural counties couldn ’ t match Murphy ’ s totals in the heavily suburban and urban sectors of New Jersey . The final turnout results weren ’ t all bad for Guadagno as the Ocean County GOP continued to dominate the Dems at the polls , and she easily beat Murphy in Monmouth County , where both candidates live .
Murphy will be sworn into office in January , bringing a far different style and agenda than the current administration . In addition to attempting to implement his campaign agenda , he will be focused on quickly changing the staffing and policy direction of state governments . As such , he will be faced with spending the next two months reviewing staffing assignments and preparing for quick action on policy changes in agencies and in the boards and commissions that perform most of the functions of government quietly and outside of the view of the public .
His running mate , Lieutenant Governor-Elect Sheila Oliver , will also be tasked with taking over a department in state government . Under the law that established the position , no provision was made for the lieutenant governor to be paid a salary . As a result , the lieutenant governor is assigned to head a department within the governor ’ s cabinet . Guadagno , for example , served as the secretary of state during her eight years . Oliver will be the Commissioner of Community Affairs and will be in charge of oversight of local government amongst other assignments . As a legislator and former speaker of the assembly , Oliver could play a valuable role for Murphy , who has no experience in Trenton , as a liaison to legislators and a specialist in the legislative process .
There can be no question that New Jersey voters have moved the state in a different direction . There could not be two more diametrically opposed personalities , philosophies and styles than Phil Murphy and Chris Christie . How Murphy demonstrates his style and his agenda will become known quickly as
36 NEW JERSEY COPS ■ NOVEMBER 2017