LEGISLATIVE REPORT
2017 NJ Primary Election Analysis
The early lines on the governor’ s race and more
Sizing up C
The field is now set for the November general election for governor and the state legislature following a primary election that saw more yawns than surprises from voters. In the end, there appears to be two practical takeaways from this election:
First, voters were not overly excited to come out to the polls despite alternatives party leaders put forward for governor and in some legislative
ROB NIXON districts. Voter turnout in the June primary was a disappointing 14 percent despite the millions spent in advertising and the“ Get Out The Vote” efforts from both parties. And although it appears that more Democrats than Republicans voted compared with the 2009 primary election, the overall totals demonstrate a disinterested populace and party base as New Jersey prepares to select a new governor.
Second, even without a massive turnout of party loyalists, this election proved once again how important it is for a candidate to receive the party line in a primary election. Specifically, a candidate who receives the designation as the official GOP or Democratic candidate on the ballot in a primary race gets bracketed under the county political party line on the ballot. With that comes identification as the formal party candidate, as well as organizational support in money and manpower. Without question, the party line favored Republican and Democratic candidates throughout NJ this year once again.
Here is a breakdown of some of the key races that will most affect the NJ State PBA: Murphy and Guadagno for governor
The race for governor has come down to what most analysts expected: Republican Lieutenant Governor Kim Guadagno versus Democratic businessman and former Ambassador to Germany Phil Murphy.
Guadagno was the favorite to succeed Governor Christie when the election season began, but she faced a surprisingly aggressive and well-organized challenge from Republican Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli. Ciattarelli could not overcome the party support Guadagno received from county GOP organizations around the state, especially in Ocean and Monmouth counties, and her name recognition and role as an active lieutenant governor for eight years brought her a clear win in the GOP primary. Guadagno took nearly half of the total election results in a field of five Republican challengers.
A former Goldman Sachs executive and ambassador to Germany under President Obama, Murphy easily beat his rivals for the Democratic nomination by more than 130,000 votes. Murphy’ s win as a first-time political candidate in NJ likely can be attributed to two major factors. First, he used his vast fortune to build his name identification and to support Democratic causes to build a base for himself. Second, he spent a considerable amount of time behind the scenes working to introduce himself to party leaders across the state. In doing so he knocked off the initial Democratic front-runner, Senate President Steve Sweeney,
early in the process by securing critically important county party organizational support for the primary.
If there is a surprise from the gubernatorial primary it is the second-place showing by Democrat Jim Johnson. Johnson, a former senior official in the U. S. Treasury and an experienced attorney, came out of nowhere by building support among issue-oriented voters and rank-and-file Democrats dissatisfied with party status quo. His efforts enabled Johnson to emerge ahead of experienced Democratic candidates Assemblyman John Wisniewski and Senator Ray Lesniak, who finished third and fourth in the field of six Democrats. In doing so, Johnson has shot to the top of the Democratic bench of potential future candidates, though his harsh personal attacks on Phil Murphy during the race have caused some wounds that will take some effort to heal.
The race between Murphy and Guadagno will center on issues related to the economy and property taxes. Murphy is running a campaign critical of the state’ s slow economic growth and his professional experience to help the state“ grow itself out” of problems. Guadagno is expected to focus on her experience as the state’ s business advocate, a role she’ s had as lieutenant governor, and her plan to lower property taxes.
Both candidates have challenges to overcome. Murphy will be attacked as the second coming of Jon Corzine – a Goldman Sachs millionaire out of touch and too much in the pockets of special-interest groups. Guadagno will have a hard time escaping the shadow of Governor Christie, who leaves office very unpopular and with many serious problems unresolved by his administration. They will both need to introduce themselves to the majority of New Jersey voters who don’ t know them as well. Lieutenant governor choice
The next significant choice the two gubernatorial candidates will make will be a running mate. Once the GOP and Democratic candidates win the primary, the NJ State Constitution gives them the power to pick a running mate.
As of this writing, neither candidate has discussed favorites or made any decisions. But the choice is likely to come down to a few factors. First, since both candidates are from Monmouth County in central New Jersey, it is likely the pick will provide a regional balance. Second, it is expected that there could be a woman and / or minority candidate selected by one or both candidates, but especially for Murphy. Finally, the pick could also fill a need for the candidates as governor. For example, both candidates could choose a legislator to address their lack of Trenton legislative experience. In any case, the selection of a lieutenant governor candidate will give some indication of what kind of direction the party nominees will be taking their campaigns and taking their administrations. Legislative incumbents and party favorites safe
The 2017 primary election saw only a few dogfights for State Senate and State Assembly, but in each of the hot races incumbent candidates and party favorites were victorious.
In the 12th District, GOP Senator Sam Thompson and his running mates, Assemblyman Ron Dancer and Assemblyman Rob
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