NWG // SUSTAINABILITY STATEMENT
Scenario analysis and assessment of the strategy’ s resilience in relation to climate change In connection with the development of the double materiality assessment in 2025, New Wave Group carried out a high-level scenario and resilience analysis to evaluate how the Group’ s business model and strategy may be affected under various future climate conditions. The analysis covers the entire value chain and has served as a basis for identifying and assessing climate-related impacts, risks, and opportunities. No identified climate-related risks have been excluded.
The scenario analysis has been conducted in a manner considered proportionate to the Group’ s operations, maturity level, and data availability. It has taken into account the short term( 0 – 2 years), the medium term( approximately 10 years), and the long term( up to 30 years).
The analysis is based on established climate and energy scenarios from the International Energy Agency( IEA) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change( IPCC), which are deemed to align with the latest climate science. Two main scenarios have been applied:
# A scenario with rapid global transition towards climate neutrality, limiting global temperature increase to approximately 1.5 ° C( IEA Net Zero Emissions by 2050, NZE).
# A scenario characterized by accelerating temperature increases, limited transition efforts, and increased physical climate risks( IPCC SSP5 8.5).
In the rapid transition scenario, extensive policy and regulatory measures, shifts in consumption patterns, and technological advancements are assumed to drive a substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, primarily in the short and medium term. In the scenario of accelerating temperature increases, the world instead fails to reduce emissions, resulting in increasing long term physical climate risks and continued economic growth driven by fossil fuels and energy intensive lifestyles.
The climate scenarios applied are not assessed to impact the current financial assumptions, as climate related assumptions have not been identified as material to the financial statements for the reporting period. Accordingly, no inconsistencies have been identified between the sustainability reporting and the financial reporting.
The assessment focused on the potential implications for the Group’ s business model, value chain, and market conditions. The selected scenario set is considered to provide general coverage of the Group’ s key climate related uncertainties and risks by including both a transition intensive scenario and a scenario characterized by higher physical risk.
The analysis has considered key decarbonization levers such as changes in climate and energy policy, regulatory requirements, market and demand trends, the evolution of the energy system, and technological developments related to energy, materials, and logistics. These decarbonization levers are considered particularly relevant to the Group given its operations, global supply chains, and exposure to evolving customer and regulatory expectations. Risks and opportunities, including potential impacts on growth, costs, capital expenditures, assets, and sales, have been prioritized based on their likelihood and magnitude of impact for each scenario and time horizon.
To further assess the resilience of the operations and strategy, a high level SWOT analysis was conducted. Identified strengths and weaknesses in the business strategy were evaluated against each scenario to identify potential vulnerabilities. The assessment was based on input from relevant internal stakeholders, benchmarking, and secondary data such as reports and academic research. No numerical sensitivity analysis was performed.
The scenario analysis has been carried out at an overall high level and is based on publicly available global and regional scenario data. The analysis is primarily qualitative and does not include site or asset specific information, nor quantified financial outcomes. The Group intends to further develop the scenario analysis as data availability, methodologies, and internal processes mature.
ANNUAL REPORT // 047