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Commercial real estate has been growing and many banks are increasing their exposure to CRE.
That’s attracted the notice of regulators, which have warned about banks’ concentration in CRE. Meanwhile some investors themselves are worried that the market could be approaching bubble territory, writes FBR & Co.’s Bob Ramsey, who takes a look at what banks have the most (and least) CRE exposure Tuesday.
Ramsey writes that there’s “nothing inherently wrong with a bank that is focused on commercial real estate lending,” and growing regulation along with and falling CMBS issuance “will provide opportunities for those that are able to continue to grow.” Nonetheless, some banks, especially those that have growth their concentration too quickly without building sufficient risk management, will most likely be hurt, and investors are right to wonder how much exposure individual banks have—as well as their track record.
Ramsey writes that many banks that have the highest exposure are focused on big markets like New York City and Southern California. Dime Community Bank (DCOM) has the highest CRE concentration in the country
at 976% of total risk-based capital, he writes, followed by privately held OneUnited Bank at 931% and New York Community Bank (NYCB) at 871%. Yet that’s not necessarily a bad thing: He writes that both DCOM and NYCB are “proven operators” and he likes their focus on multi-family lending in the rent-regulated buildings in New York, which usually have lower losses (when properly underwritten).
By contrast, banks that focus on commercial and industrial loans, like Comerica (CMA) and KeyCorp (KEY) often have much lower concentrations.
Here’s how the banks in his coverage stack up:
"Within our coverage universe, names such as First Foundation (FFWM – Outperform), Customers Bancorp (CUBI – Outperform),
ConnectOne Bancorp (CNOB – Outperform), and Signature Bank (SBNY – Outperform) have both strong growth and high CRE concentration as a percentage of total risk-based capital. The banks are primarily focused on multifamily lending in metro New York (CUBI, CNOB, SBNY) or Southern California (FFWM), with a high percentage of buildings subject to rent regulation. CNOB also has construction loans equal to 129% of total risk-based capital, but ConnectOne’s NCOs during the last credit cycle peaked at only 19 bps despite having one of the heaviest construction concentrations in the country heading into the Great Recession."
He also writes that increasing pressure from regulators could spark M&A in the industry from banks that are looking to offset lower organic growth.
Here’s How Banks’ Commercial Real Estate Exposure Stacks Up
By Teresa Rivasom
posted on barrons.com
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