home about, at that rate the Canadian economy would
grow by 7%. This rate of course has been cooled by the
-0.1% GDP decline in February. Canadian unemployment is
at 7.1% which is nothing to be alarmed about considering
since 2011 unemployment peaked at 8.2% and dipped as
low as 6.2%. Interest rates as set by the Bank of Canada
remain at 0.5% and have been low since the great recession
like many developed economies. The housing market is
where things begin to get less peachy. While the decline in
areas affected by the energy sector has been moderated by
other areas of Canada, this has now come to an end. That
said the strength of the housing market overall continues
with strong resale values holding. Last but not least how
is retail doing? Well, according to Royal Bank of Canada,
retail sales were off in March by a modest 0.2% which
barely affects the gains in January and February making
the first quarter strong to very strong depending on how
enthusiastic you are.
To not mention the Canadian dollar would be negligent,
therefore it is currently at .77 USD. Yes, it did reach its
lowest point in the last 15 years, and yes the Canadian
dollar seems to be a petrol dollar for some reason, but it
is somewhat stable now. There will be ups and downs in
value but a .7 dollar is here to stay. As long as it is stable, all
of us can work with that.
SO WHERE IS ALL THE DOOM AND GLOOM
COMING FROM?
Were you ever that driver that passed a major pile up on
a freeway? That is basically what any business owner who
came out of 2015 with just a few scratches is comparable
to. Because in a lot of places in the Canadian economy,
2015 was bad. 100,000 jobs were lost in the energy sector
with around 62,000 of those jobs being in Alberta alone.
The manufacturing sector took a hit with 52,000 jobs
lost. Real wages took a hit with the decline in AB of -2.6%
pulling the country down to its lowest gain ever of 0.8%.
Personal bankruptcies are up overall in Canada by 3% but
it is the energy provinces that had the sharpest increases.
Saskatchewan at 13.4%, Newfoundland at 17.9% and Alberta
at 18.5%. These numbers of course are what put Canada
into a technical recession for the first half of 2015.
FACTS ARE STUBBORN THINGS
1.898 M vehicles were sold in Canada in 2015. A record,
with trucks leading the way. While vehicle sales as a good
barometer of what could happen in the light industrial
trailer industry, its numbers can be skewed by low interest
rates, factory incentives and new model releases (all of
which aligned rather well in 2015). RV sales are closer to
home and according to the Statistical Surveys, sales took a
19.1% hit in 2015. As the jump in bankruptcies indicate, in
certain parts of Canada consumers just did not have money
to spend nor did the businesses that laid off so many
employees.
continued on next page
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NATDA Magazine
75