LONG-TERM CARE
Joint probability of long-term care in couples
Dr . Robert Pokorski , MD , MBA is a consultant and public speaker with expertise in longevity , long-term care , and the decline of cognitive and financial ability at older ages . Dr . Bob @ RobertPokorski . com
1 Favreault MM , et al . Projections of risk of needing long-term services and supports at ages 65 and older . ASPE Research Brief . Urban Institute . January 2021 .
2 HealthView Services . Long-term care and financial planning . June 2021 .
3 Johnson RW . What is the lifetime risk of needing and receiving long-term services and supports ? ASPE Research Brief . Urban Institute . April 2019 .
Financial professionals and their clients often underestimate the risk of long-term care ( LTC ). The reason is because they don ’ t consider the joint probability of LTC in couples . Introducing this topic can open the door to discussions about investments , wealth transfer , financial planning , and product options to deal with challenges late in life .
A recent report 1 projected that 50.9 % and 61.1 % of 65-year-old men and women , respectively , will need LTC for 90 days or more sometime later in life . What this study did not provide is the likelihood that both people will need LTC . Joint probability calculations are below . Man only in 20 % of couples [ 0.509 *( 1-0.611 ) = 0.20 ]. Woman only in 30 % of couples [ 0.611 *( 1-0.509 ) = 0.30 ]. Both man and woman in 31 % of couples [ 0.611 * 0.509 = 0.31 ]. One or both people in 81 % of couples [ 0.20 + 0.30 + 0.31 = 0.81 ]. Neither person in 19 % of couples [( 1-0.509 )*( 1-0.611 ) = 0.19 ].
The same formulae can be used to calculate joint probabilities in same-sex couples , which are displayed in the Table showing LTC estimates for 65-year-old individuals and couples .
Likelihood of needing long-term care for 65-year-old individuals and couples
JUNE 2021 2 JANUARY 2021 1 APRIL 2019 3
Probabilities for individuals Man |
44 %
|
50.9 %
|
64 %
|
Woman |
56 %
|
61.1 %
|
75 %
|
|
Probabilities for couples Male-female couples
Man only
|
19 %
|
20 %
|
16 %
|
Woman only |
31 %
|
30 %
|
27 %
|
Both |
25 %
|
31 %
|
48 %
|
One or both people |
75 %
|
81 %
|
91 %
|
Neither |
25 %
|
19 %
|
9 %
|
Male-male couples Man 1 only |
25 %
|
25 %
|
23 %
|
Man 2 only |
25 %
|
25 %
|
23 %
|
Both |
19 %
|
26 %
|
41 %
|
One or both people |
69 %
|
76 %
|
87 %
|
Neither |
31 %
|
24 %
|
13 %
|
Female-female couples Woman 1 only |
25 %
|
24 %
|
19 %
|
Woman 2 only |
25 %
|
24 %
|
19 %
|
Both |
31 %
|
37 %
|
56 %
|
One or both people |
81 %
|
85 %
|
94 %
|
Neither |
19 %
|
15 %
|
6 %
|
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