Long-term Threat Radar
The following list represents potential but significant longer-term risks to Gibraltar from climate change . These are risks that are unlikely to materialise significantly before 2100 , but that would nonetheless have such severe negative effects that they should be prepared for with absolute urgency . These risks represent cutting edge fields of research that are still in their early stages and therefore the likelihood of them occurring is still uncertain . However , given the magnitude of these threats if they do materialise , the scientific literature surrounding these threats should be monitored as a precaution .
Threat |
Vulnerable Groups |
Probability |
Gibraltar becoming an island following the submersion of the runway and isthmus connecting Gibraltar to Spain ( the lowest lying urban area in Gibraltar at < 2m elevation ) |
All demographics and sectors , as it would likely lead to labour shortages ( Spanish worker access limited ), price inflation ( increased import costs ), reduced tourism ( no airport ) and loss of infrastructure and |
Virtually inevitable ( beyond the 2100 timeframe ), unless sea walls are constructed or the entire area of the isthmus linking
Gibraltar to Spain is artificially raised .
|
Hurricanes forming in the Western Mediterranean Sea , damaging property and infrastructure and threatening lives Cognitive impairment from rising CO2 concentrations which reduce brain capacity , decisionmaking and clarity of thought
Rapid inward migration from hotter regions as they become uninhabitable - straining public infrastructure / services property in the North All demographics and sectors - particularly those living in lowlying areas , the Eastside , and older urban developments
Those spending large portions of the day indoors ( where CO2 concentrations are highest ), including office workers and school students - particularly those in buildings with poor ventilation
Low-income families who disproportionately rely on essential services like healthcare and cannot afford private alternatives
Highly uncertain - this is still an emerging area of research with no clear consensus - it should be monitored accordingly . Possible - it is well established that higher CO2 concentrations negatively impact human cognition , but the exact extent to which this is the case at projected emissions levels is the subject of ongoing debate . Likely , particularly if Gibraltar joins the Schengen Area .
Author : Ryan Robba
7