Climate Projections for Gibraltar
The impact of global climate change on temperatures , rainfall patterns and extreme weather events varies by region . This section summarises the types of changes in the climate that Gibraltar is expected to experience , based on the latest scientific research . The first set of projections are based on data from European and Spanish studies of the region , whilst the second set of figures was extracted from the UN ’ s latest IPCC report - specifically the sections that relate to the Mediterranean region .
Climate hazards expected to be observed with increasing intensity in Gibraltar between now and the year 2100 , based on regional research and reporting from the EU and Spain :
• Temperature increases of 3.4 ° C - 5 ° C on average are predicted , with increases of up to 6.5 ° C during the Summer months in the most pessimistic emissions scenarios
• Precipitation decreases of 15 %, including up to 30 % reductions during the Summer
• Sea level rise of between 0.36 - 0.64 metres depending on global emissions progress
• Flash floods and droughts to become 20 % more frequent at minimum ( heavy rain over a short period of time , and extended periods with no rainfall , respectively )
• Negligible changes in wind speeds of less than 3 %, on average
Climate hazards expected to progressively emerge in the Iberian Peninsula ( including Gibraltar ) between now and the year 2100 , based on the UN ’ s IPPC 6th Assessment Report ( 2021 ) 1 :
• Temperature increases of 1.4 ° C - 4.4 ° C are very likely , rising as high as 5.7 ° C under the most pessimistic emissions scenario
• Sea level rise of 0.44 - 0.76 metres is likely , rising over 1 metre in the most pessimistic emissions scenario
• It is virtually certain that sea levels will continue rising beyond 2100 regardless of emissions progress due to the time delay between atmospheric and oceanic warming
• Previously 1-in-10-year magnitude droughts / heatwaves will occur 4 to 9 times every 10 years on average
• Previously 1-in-50-year magnitude extreme heat events will occur 8 to 39 times per 50 years on average
• Heavy precipitation events will double in frequency - as will the corresponding flood risks they bring
1
All figures based on ‘ business as usual ’ emissions scenarios , unless otherwise stated .
Author : Ryan Robba
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