INTERNET VOTING
“ Making online voting easier to use naturally encourages more people to make use of it.”
MTKANG / SHUTTERSTOCK. COM per cent. Furthermore, it potentially changed the results in 10 per cent of competitive mayoral elections if, for example, Internet voters held different candidate preferences since the margin of victory in those elections was three per cent or less. While Internet voting is not a panacea, it impacts voter participation and could affect election outcomes when there is a close race between candidates.
This should not alarm local elected representatives. There is a perception that offering Internet voting will encourage lots of young, more liberally oriented voters to participate and potentially unseat conservative-leaning incumbents. While we do not yet know about the partisan orientations of municipal voters in Ontario, since there are no local-level political parties and given that these questions haven’ t been asked in surveys, research from the 2014 municipal elections shows that the younger voters, especially those aged 18 to 34, prefer to vote by paper. This probably has to do with the fact that many of these electors may be voting for the first time and casting a paper ballot at a polling station is a symbolic rite of passage. It also shows, however, that younger electors are not as drawn to Internet voting, perhaps allaying this concern.
Considerations of the policy design In addition to examining whether Internet voting affects voter participation, we also looked at specific features of the policy design and how this impacts uptake. Specifically, we looked at whether eliminating paper ballots, only allowing Internet voting to be used in advance of Election Day and requiring registration to use Internet voting affected citizens’ use of it.
Results show that when there is no registration requirement, 35 per cent more electors choose to cast a ballot by Internet. This isn’ t too surprising. Not requiring voters to register to access an online ballot lowers the opportunity cost of using the voting method. Making online voting easier to use naturally encourages more people to make use of it.
Regarding advance voting, in 2014, six municipalities offered Internet voting in advance of the election only, while 91 continued it as an option on Election Day. Our analysis, although not quite significant, suggests that about nine per cent less people voted online when it was offered in the advance-voting period. Municipal administrators could expect a higher uptake of the voting method when it is offered for the entire voting period.
What about when paper voting is eliminated? Fifty-nine Ontario municipalities ran fully electronic elections in 2014 – 58 of those used a combination of Internet and telephone ballots, while the municipality of Leamington held the first Internet-only election. In these cases, 12 per cent more
20 Q4 2016 www. amcto. com people chose to vote online. Regarding turnout, eliminating paper voting is associated with a two per cent increase in voter turnout. This should not necessarily encourage other municipalities to take this route. Many of the communities that eliminated paper voting have seasonal populations where the cost of traveling to traditional poll locations may not have been an option for these property owners.
Future considerations The decision to adopt Internet voting depends on the unique contextual considerations of each municipality. Population and electorate size, population density, public attitudes, broadband infrastructure, Internet penetration, bureaucratic and political will, previous rates of voter participation as well as specific characteristics of the electorate such as age, income and education are factors that determine whether deployment of the voting method is appropriate in a given community. The intention of this article is not to promote or oppose online voting adoption, but to educate the municipal community about the effects on voter participation and how specific features of the policy design can influence elector uptake.
Our research shows that over time in Ontario municipalities, Internet voting is associated with a three per cent effect on voter participation. Not requiring registration and offering online voting for the full voting period, including Election Day, will have the highest uptake among electors. Though we are not advocating for their phasing out, even situations where paper ballots were eliminated are associated with a turnout increase of two per cent. Overall, Internet voting has a modest, positive effect on voter participation. It won’ t substantially solve municipal turnout woes, but its impact could still change local elections. These are important facts to know as municipal administrators consider whether to offer Internet voting in 2018.
The authors sincerely thank municipal clerks’ offices across Ontario for providing municipal election data. Special thanks also to AMCTO, AMO, MPAC and local media for providing information about municipal elections, and Theo Nazary, Cody Boomer, Brian Budd, Ed Cabrera, Matthew Maingot and Matthew McManus for assistance in contacting municipal officials.
Nicole Goodman is director at the Centre for e-Democracy with a concurrent appointment with the Munk School for Global Affairs at the University of Toronto. Leah C. Stokes is an assistant professor of political science at the University of California, Santa Barbara. Both authors contributed equally to the research.