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MTH 231 Week 2 DQ 1 and DQ 2
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Week 2 DQ 1
Suppose a birdwatcher averages spotting 0.3 rare finches every day
during the two hours allotted for watching. This means that the
birdwatcher spots, on average, three rare finches every 10 days. The
average is based on considerable experience. Over a given 10-day period,
the birdwatcher sees zero rare finches in five days, and on the sixth day,
the birdwatcher declares, “I’m due to see a rare finch today.”
Assume that the environmental conditions are reasonably constant with
no seasonal migratory issues involved. There is reasonably consistent
weather and there are no confounding (lurking, unseen) variables
involved. There is, however, a flaw in the birdwatcher’s statement. What
is the error and why is it wrong?
Would you choose the binomial pdf (probability distribution function) or
would you choose the Poisson pdf to better analyze the birdwatcher's