Montel Magazine 4 - 2020 - Page 11

Market talk

global competition for hydrogen in what many believe will be the next commodity trade boom . AC
French winter reactor availability to hit “ record low ” – TSO French nuclear availability is set to plunge to a “ record low ” this winter as reactors are shut down for delayed maintenance work , French TSO RTE warned . Availability could fall to around 40 GW , representing about 65 % of France ’ s total nuclear generating capacity , by the end of February when up to 13 reactors are due offline . In a typical year only 2-4 French reactors would be out of service during this period . That number has grown this year because of the need to carry out reactor maintenance postponed earlier in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic . RTE also warned France could see power shortages in January , February and early March if temperatures drop 2-7C below seasonal norms . MB
Poland faces power supply squeeze , higher prices – analyst Poland will face a squeeze on power supply and higher wholesale prices next decade under a current government draft plan to replace coal-fired power plants with natural gasfired units , said Pawel Czyzak , an analyst at Instrat , a policy think tank . “ In 2030 the Polish [ energy ] system will be hard to balance , with a large fleet of gas plants running at highcapacity factors , leading to rise in prices and imports even at conservative carbon price scenarios ,” Czyzak said . Commenting on a leaked version of the country ’ s draft energy policy , still being debated by
the Polish government , he said Poland faced a near doubling of the marginal cost of generating electricity from about EUR 40 / MWh in 2020 to a little over EUR 70 / MWh in 2030 . MC
Sweden ’ s power system faces critical situation – Fortum The Swedish power system is facing a critical situation and the country ’ s TSO has an insufficient investment plan , said the head of trading at Finnish energy major Fortum . ” We expect Sweden will need largescale electrification of society to reach its 2045 carbon neutrality goal ,” said Simon-Erik Ollus . “ Annual power will rise from 140 TWh currently to around 240 TWh . Planned grid upgrades will remove existing bottlenecks but will not enable much more wind power in the north , something we deem necessary ,” he said . The country ’ s acute need for grid investments was exemplified this summer when there was a lack of power production capacity in the southern half of the country , while hydropower producers in the north had to let water pass by turbines amid wet weather and large amounts of melting snow , he said . AT
Finland to double wind power output by 2024 – lobby Finland is set to more than double its annual wind power output to 15 TWh by 2024 , covering 18 % of domestic electricity supply , the head of the country ’ s wind power association said . The country was also on track to reach the association ’ s long-term target of 30 TWh wind by 2030 , added Anni Mikkonen . “ When we look
at all the new investment decisions being made over the past couple of years , we no longer think [ 30 TWh by 2030 ] is a vision but more like a forecast . We are highly likely to reach this target ,” she said , adding the country ’ s 2035 carbon neutrality target was a major driver . Finland generated a record 6 TWh of wind power last year , up from 2.3 TWh five years ago , with all of the output coming from onshore projects . OV
Higher ETS target to slash emissions in central Europe – analyst A higher EU ETS emission reduction target for 2030 could help slash power sector emissions in four central and eastern European countries by about 80 %, said an analyst . Modelling showed that coal-fired power in Poland , the Czech Republic , Romania and Bulgaria could shrink by 40 GW over the next decade – with the majority of capacity closing by 2025 – if the EU agrees a 55 % emissions cut for the ETS , said Katherine Poseidon , analyst at Bloomberg New Energy Finance . AV
Europe on course for very mild winter – Weather Company US-based forecaster The Weather Company expects all the three winter months – December to February – to turn milder than usual in Europe . “ We ’ ve made warmer changes to the forecasts for all three months of the winter , given that the pattern in November is not progressing in a way that historically suggests cold winter weather and as climate model forecasts continue to be exceedingly warm ,” said lead meteorologist Todd Crawford . The historically
large Arctic ice deficit “ is playing a stronger role ” in the winters of the northern hemisphere , he added . JD
Equinor declares goal of net zero emissions by 2050 Norwegian energy company Equinor has announced plans to achieve net zero emissions from production and final consumption of energy by 2050 . “ Equinor is committed to being a leader in the energy transition ,” said new CEO Anders Opedal . “ It is a sound business strategy to ensure longterm competitiveness during a period of profound changes in the energy systems as society moves towards net zero .” Earlier this year , Equinor announced plans to achieve carbon neutral global operations by 2030 and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Norway to near zero by 2050 . GOM
500 GW of new coal-fired capacity still planned – study More than 500 GW of new coal-fired capacity is still in the pipeline globally , despite widespread efforts to phase out the fuel in favour of greener alternatives , German environmental group Urgewald said . “ Since the Paris climate agreement was signed [ in April 2015 ], the world ’ s installed coal-fired capacity has increased by 137 GW ,” the group added . This is equal to the operating coal plant fleets of Germany , Russia and Japan combined . Almost half of the planned 522 GW of coal-fired capacity will be located in China . “ Accordingly , four of the world ’ s five top coal plant developers are Chinese companies ,” it said . LW
Montel Magazine 4 – 2020