Montel Magazine 1 2022 - Uproar over green investm Montel Magazine 1 2022 - Uproar over green investm - Page 26

Brian Ricketts Secretary-general , Euracoal The ongoing spat between China and Australia drove coal markets in 2021 . An unofficial ban on Australian coal imports meant China , despite buying from every other exporter , fell short and suffered blackouts . Meanwhile , Australian exporters found new markets , but farther afield so shipping distances increased .
China ’ s closure of some ports and unloading delays at others left vessels lying at anchor , putting further pressure on the international coal supply chain . In response , prices rose to record levels , especially in China , but also in Europe where imported thermal coal reached a massive USD 300 / t in October . Nevertheless , coal remained competitive as gas prices rose even more dramatically . With gas stocks low , Europe is lucky to have the security of coal this winter .
Looking ahead , coal prices are likely to remain volatile , but perhaps lower than current prices [ of around USD 200 / t ] at around USD 120 / t . However , there are too many uncertainties to make reliable predictions . China consumes half of the 8bn tonnes of coal produced each year and its actions will determine global coal market dynamics .
In Europe , we depend on Russian coal exports , so the geopolitical developments in Ukraine and the EU ’ s response could disrupt coal flows . As ever , the availability of gas will determine coal burn in Europe . The opening of Nord Stream 2 in the second half of 2022 would clearly reduce demand for coal , but at what cost ? If citizens are prepared to pay higher prices for gas and renewables , then the phaseout of coal will continue as envisaged by EU climate and energy policy . For the rest of the world , coal will remain an invaluable , if unloved source of energy . LW
Anders Bauditz CEO , Norlys Energy Trading First of all the gas crisis has underpinned that the need for security of supply is a prerequisite for the green energy transition . I believe most market players were surprised by the price surge on both power and gas during Q4 . The global energy outlook is more important than ever and the capital requirement to run a trading operation has probably been a top concern for all market participants .
The main theme from last year will also be focus in the beginning of 2022 . This will be the geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine but also focus on security of supply to support the green transition . In terms of markets , we will probably face volatility in the coming months . OV
Lucien Wiegers Director of trading , asset & portfolio management , Eneco The markets tested the robustness of the management of supply and trading companies . Record commodity prices combined with demand effects from Covid , as well as again more renewable capacity , characterised 2021 . Risk premiums , which typically are largely based on “ look-back ”, proved insufficient and any volume deviations , such as forecast errors , demand fall-out and renewable volume deviations ( lack of wind volume ), came at very high prices and costs . Mild temperatures helped avoid bigger problems .
For 2022 we need to determine if 2021 was the start of the “ new normal ” and whether it requires resetting the risk parameters for trade , supply and counterparty credit and cash management . HPM
Ole Lofsnaes Nordic Energy director , Alcoa The gas supply crisis and gas prices , which had a massive impact on Norwegian ( and European ) power prices . CO2 prices soared too , primarily driven by EU ’ s new climate policy and COP26 , which amplified the power price-hike in Europe and Norway .
The gas supply situation will be the key issue , alongside regulatory efforts to revamp Norwegian onshore wind-power development . GOM
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Montel Magazine 1 – 2022