Montel Magazine 1 2022 - Uproar over green investm Montel Magazine 1 2022 - Uproar over green investm - Page 16
TSOs brace for energy supply threats
Exponential growth in intermittent green power production and unpredictable energy policy decisions have called power supply security in northwestern Europe beyond 2025 into question .
By Karolin Schaps
Dutch TSO Tennet has warned that security of supply across its power network is in decline and that under extreme weather conditions the number of hours during which supply is insufficient may exceed the fourhours-per-year standard . “ In a system where the share of wind and solar is growing and coal and nuclear are being phased out security of supply will become an issue ,” says Heleen Groenenberg , senior electricity market developer at Tennet .
The northwestern European region spanning Belgium , Germany and the Netherlands is already interdependent thanks to multiple cross-border connections and similar weather patterns influencing renewable energy production . Therefore , policy decisions made in any part of the region impact not only the national energy landscape but also that of the neighbouring countries . “ Due to the increased dependency , security of supply is no longer a national matter ; national decisions have international consequences ,” says Patrick van de Rijt , head of market analysis energy system planning at Tennet .
In Germany , for instance , the nuclear and coal phase out will take nearly 4 GW of power capacity off the market this year , a move that is expected to turn the historical power exporter into a net importer from 2023 , according to the International Energy Agency ( IEA ). Similarly , a looming decision in Belgium about whether the country will forge ahead with the closure of all of its nuclear reactors totalling 5.9 GW of capacity will substantially impact northwestern Europe ’ s electricity supply balance .
The recent elections of new governments in both Germany and the Netherlands have also meant another shift in energy policy priorities . Germany ’ s new coalition government announced moving forward the exit from coal-fired power to 2030 from 2038 , while its Dutch counterpart government has committed to a 55 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels by 2030 . This reality means that the region ’ s TSOs are having to cooperate more closely than ever to coordinate security of supply questions across the borders .
Tennet forecasts that by 2030 , the Netherlands will need to import electricity during 593 hours of the year , a 31 % increase on last year ’ s