Helle Ostergaard Kristiansen
CEO, Danske Commodities
In 2019, we experienced European gas markets becoming increasingly affected by the global
supply/demand situation. The influx of LNG to Europe and oversupply of gas in general have
pushed down natural gas prices, resulting in increased profitability of (cleaner) gas-fired power
plants at the expense of coal plants.
The renewable market parity trend has started, but we are still waiting for the boom – 2020
may be the year. We see a decrease in PPA [duration] requirements by financers and willingness
to take more risk in renewable project investments. However, with subsidies being phased out,
the demand for fixed-price PPAs will increase. HPM
Thomas Bjorn Houlind
director, markets at Energi Danmark
The most important event in 2019 was the heavily
oversupplied gas market and firm carbon market
causing a shake-up in the European production stack
with spark cost moving below dark cost. This caused
country spreads to narrow and power flows to change
significantly compared to earlier years.
Andreas Schierenbeck
CEO of Uniper
We are convinced that the next decade will be a decisive one – for Uniper, for Germany and for
the whole world. The next few years will set the course for the transition to a greener economy
and a cleaner environment. At midnight on December 31, 2019, not only did a new decade begin:
Rather, the confirmation of a whole new era started – it will be a question of accelerating the
transition from classic energy sources to green technologies in a realistic manner. The answer is
not to turn the lights off. LW
2020 is starting out bearish with hydro reservoir
levels significantly above normal in most European
countries and an even more oversupplied gas market
than 2019 due to the absence of winter, high LNGinflows
and strong flows from Russia. Quite a few new
interconnectors, and an increase in capacity on existing
ones, are coming in in 2020. Looking at most countries’
reactions to the 70% rule on available capacity, and
the level of countertrading and curtailments in 2019, it
will be interesting to see how this increase in installed
capacity will affect actual flows and short-term markets.
Cagdas Ates
CEO, MFT Energy
The power markets had a year of converging prices and Germany surprisingly became an importer
of electricity in untraditional seasons. We also witnessed a day with full market decoupling fall
back this year in power spot markets – a very rare incident that provoked extraordinary spot
prices. One major trend in the industry over the last three years has been the establishment
of new start-up companies that focus on energy trading with a slim cost base and niche focus
areas. We at MFT Energy welcome and support this development and help ambitious people with
great ideas to realise their dreams. We think that these start-ups challenge the traditionally large
energy companies and help the industry become more efficient and transparent.
With the effect of global warming, Europe has not really had cold days yet this winter. This
might increase the oversupply of the gas into 2020 and it can also have an effect on power
prices. We will follow the discussions between Acer and European TSOs regarding the utilisation
of the cross-border capacities in 2020. There is a new market coupling in European markets
scheduled in Q4.Lastly the political developments regarding Brexit, the tensions in the Middle
East, a new election in US and ongoing trade-wars – these are all going to be the topics that we
will watch closely. HPM
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Montel Magazine 1–2020