MONETA VOL 21 MONETA VOL 21 | Page 14

Issue No: 21 Moneta Over the past 10 years, India's merchandise exports to China have been volatile. It ranged between $9 billion and $18 billion. The peak was $18 billion recorded in 2011-12. In 2015-16, however, it fell to a nine- year low of $9 billion in 2015-16. In the last financial year, the exports witnessed an improvement to $10.2 billion. Commerce and industry minister Nirmala Sitharaman said recently in the Lok Sabha that efforts are being made to increase overall exports to the country by diversifying the trade basket with emphasis on manufactured goods, services, resolution of market access issues and other non-trade barriers. EFFECT OF WAR ON TRADE Doka La standoff has kicked off a trade war between India and China. There are many instances that prove the trade war is currently on. China is concerned about India's investigation against 12 Chinese products over the last six months, while India is stonewalling the acquisition of an Indian company by a Chinese firm. As Dinesh Unnikrishnan of Firstpost writes, these instances are more than enough for us to conclude that a trade war is already on between the neighbours. It may not be an all-out battle yet, but it has begun. A trade war affects the economy, its people's financial security. While the Chinese economy is facing rough weather, India’s economy neither is in the pink of health. There are widespread job losses. While the informal sector has been hit hard by demonetisation and GST implementation, the formal sectors such as IT industry are hit by protectionism in the western markets and technological advancement. II. July 2017 III. Merchandise imports from China ($billion) Over the past 10 years, India's merchandise imports from China have seen an exponential increase of 251% from $17.48 billion in 2006-07 to $61.29 billion in 2016-17. In comparison, India's exports to China have risen a meagre 22.5% during the same period. Merchandise exports to China ($billion) 12