MONETA VOL 21 MONETA VOL 21 | Page 12

Issue No: 21 Moneta So, by all these discussions, I believe that if provisions are removed by RBI for farmers loan waivers, or if state governments pay the dues by themselves, the PSU banks won’t be affected by that extent but we remain our negative view for NBFCs and extremely negative MFIs which have already seen 20 per cent to 35 per cent correction in the consensus earnings expectations for FY18 in this calendar year. July 2017 to protect farmers against both production and price risks. Cooperatives can also be encouraged; these will help reduce risk and transaction costs. Central and state governments will need to work together in order to enhance the viability of the sector. This will require investment in practically every aspect of the farm economy, including irrigation, agricultural research, storage and marketing. It will also require policy decisions in other areas—foreign direct investment in multi-brand retail, which would lay the groundwork for cold- chain storage infrastructure—that support the sector. So what could be the solution for this problem? A paper brought out by NITI Aayog in December 2015 made several suggestions that are worth considering. Apart from efforts to increase yields, the framework for land leasing can be strengthened, which will not only allow consolidation, but will also give an opportunity to unwilling farmers to exit the sector. It also highlighted the idea of price deficiency payment. If the price of a crop falls below a predetermined threshold level, farmers can be compensated through cash transfers. Adequate safeguards need to be built in order In the absence of this long-term planning and vision, the stress in the sector will keep resurfacing. And that means the same protests, the same debates and the same fiscally deleterious government responses a few years down the road. - Rahul Jain NMIMS, PGDM 2016-18 10