MOF-BUDGET Jun. 2016 | Page 381
Medium-Term Fiscal Forecast
MEDIUM-TERM FISCAL CONSOLIDATION PLAN
B$ millions
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2018/19
Budget**
Projected
Projection
Projection
Projection
1. Recurrent Expenditure
1642
1632
1691
1707
1923
2098
2155
2321
2302
2262
2. Recurrent Revenue
1452
1432
1383
1470
1728
2047
2010
2176
2245
2335
3. Recurrent Balance (2. minus 1.)
-190
-200
-308
-237
-195
-51
-145
-145
-57
73
4. Capital Expenditure
263
395
352
333
372
242
190
242
242
242
5. Capital Revenue
210
87
0
0
4
0
0
0
0
0
6. Capital Balance (5. minus 4.)
-53
-308
-352
-333
-368
-242
-190
-242
-242
-242
-243
-508
-660
-570
-563
-293
-335
-387
-299
-169
7. Total Deficit (3. plus 6.)
8. Debt Redemption
77
63
121
82
182
152
185
287
271
237
9. GFS Deficit (7. minus 8.)
-166
-445
-539
-488
-381
-141
-150
-100
-28
68
10.GDP (Current Prices)*
7900
8145
8461
8570
8736
9220
8944
9177
9517
9903
-2.1
-5.5
-6.4
-5.7
-4.4
-1.5
-1.7
-1.1
-0.3
0.7
Growth Rate (current prices)
0.4
3.1
3.9
1.3
1.9
5.5
2.4
2.6
3.7
4.1
Growth Rate (constant prices)
1.1
1.8
1.5
-0.3
-1.1
2.6
-0.6
0.7
1.6
2.2
Government Debt (end June)
3553
3906
4690
5160
5629
5497
5779
5879
5907
5839
Government Debt (% of GDP)
45.0
48.0
55.4
60.2
64.4
59.6
64.6
64.1
62.1
59.0
Recurrent Expend. (% of GDP)
20.8
20.0
20.0
19.9
22.0
22.8
24.1
25.3
24.2
22.8
Recurrent Revenue (% of GDP)
18.4
17.6
16.3
17.2
19.8
22.2
22.5
23.7
23.6
23.6
11.GFS Deficit as % of GDP
Annex C
Outturn
Memo Items:-
Capital Expenditure (% GDP)
3.3
4.8
4.2
3.9
4.3
2.6
2.1
2.6
2.5
2.4
Primary Balance ($)
36
-253
-319
-238
-127
125
116
172
249
338
Primary Balance (% of GDP)
0.5
-3.1
-3.8
-2.8
-1.5
1.4
1.3
1.9
2.6
3.4
* GDP estimates through 2015 are from the Department of Statistics; thereafter from the IMF World Economic Outlook
** As of 2015/16, the Recurrent and Capital Expenditure figures reflect the reclassification of transfers from the latter to the former.
[381]
2016/2017
DRAFT
ESTIMATES
OF REVENUE &
EXPENDITURE