MOF-BUDGET Jun. 2016 | Page 370

The Central Bank Of The Bahamas’ Contribution To The 2016-2017 Budget Communication In terms of the major job centers, the unemployment rate in the dominant New Annex A Providence market (at 70.8% of the total labour force) advanced by 3.9 percentage points to 15.9% over the six-month period, while Grand Bahama’s rate firmed to 14.2% in November from 12.9% in the prior six-month period. In contrast, Abaco’s unemployment rate declined by 2.5 percentage points to 9.7%. At end-November, the jobless rate for females and males stood at 17.0% and 12.7%, respectively. INFLATION Domestic consumer price inflation in The Bahamas—as measured by changes in the Retail Price Index—firmed by 70 basis points to 1.9% in 2015. While the 7.5 percent VAT rate was a factor, some price responses exceeded this threshold, as average price gains for health, firmed by 13.6 percentage points to 15.4%, recreation & culture by 7.1 percentage points to 10.8% and clothing & footwear, by 5.3 percentage points to 5.4%. Further, higher inflation was also posted for furnishing, household equipment & routine household maintenance, by 5.0 percentage points to 6.6%, communication, by 4.6 percentage points to 5.0%, food & nonalcoholic beverages, by 4.2 percentage points to 5.9%, restaurant & hotels by 4.0 percentage points to 5.9%, education, by 2.4 percentage points to 5.0%, alcohol beverages, tobacco & [370] 2016/2017 DRAFT ESTIMATES OF REVENUE & EXPENDITURE narcotics, by 1.8 percentage points to 8.8% and miscellaneous goods and services, by 0.3 percentage points to 1.6%. In contrast, the downward trajectory in global oil prices contributed to the fall in the transportation index by 5.4%, a reversal from a 3.7% increase in 2014, while housing, water, gas, electricity & other fuels, which accounts for almost a third of the index, contracted by 1.4%, following a 0.3% decline in the prior year. Reflecting the pass-through effects of lower international crude oil prices, domestic fuel costs contracted in 2015. Specifically, declines were recorded for average per gallon prices of both gasoline and diesel, by 17.2% and 22.0% to $4.34 and $3.89, respectively, after decreases of 2.0% and 2.8% in the prior year. Similarly, The Bahamas Electricity Corporation’s average fuel charge fell by 34.2% to 16.23 cents per kilowatt hour (kWh), outpacing the 4.8% reduction recorded a year earlier. Over the first quarter of 2016, average fuel costs sustained their downward trajectory, benefitting from continued declines in global oil prices. Reflecting these developments, the average price of gasoline and diesel contracted by 9.3% to $3.69 per gallon and by 11.2% to $3.32 per gallon, respectively. Similarly, the Bahamas Electricity Corporation’s average fuel charge decreased by 12.1% to 8.89 cents per kilowatt hour (kWh) over the prior quarter. 7