Modern Business Magazine October 2016 | Page 32

MODERN BUSINESS 23 buys cocoa-butter lotion, a purse large enough to double as a diaper bag, zinc and magnesium supplements, and a bright blue rug. Target can predict she has an 87% chance of being pregnant and will have her baby in five months. With that knowledge, they can then send brochures directly to the woman, encouraging pregnancyrelated purchases. As Target discovers, though, you have to be careful with this knowledge. Their analysis results in a high-school girl receiving advertisements of maternity clothing and nursery furniture. Her father is enraged and complains to a Target manager about the obvious mistake. A few days later the manager calls to apologise again to the father. A little sheepishly, the dad admits he’s had a conversation with his daughter and she is due in August. Whether you are telling the story of the root causes during analysis or exploring the possible stories that explain strong correlations, it’s the stories that help the analyst make meaning out of what they discover and see whether the data supports, complicates or refutes the story. AFTER DATA ANALYSIS As I’ve said, there’s often a chasm between an analyst’s insight and the decision-makers who need to have this insight. Part of the challenge stems from the background disciplines of the analysts. They typically are steeped in mathematics, statistics and IT, and are more comfortable digging into the data than conversing with decision-makers about what they’ve found. On the flip side, decision-makers often assume that people trained in STEM disciplines are poor communicators. But the more I work with engineers, technologists and the many other flavours of numbercruncher, the more I’ve learned that 32 ModernBusiness October 2016 many do just fine communicating their discoveries once they have the basic skills under their belts. And they are keen to learn. When you add to that the simple fact that we are all storytellers, helping analysts convey their findings in interesting and compelling ways using story techniques becomes a straightforward task. SPOTTING STORIES The first thing you need to have clear in your mind is exactly what we mean when we say ‘story’. This is vital because you won’t get all the benefits of sharing stories unless what you’re sharing is actually a story. I’ve offered a definition in Putting Stories to Work and also on our blog here and here. But in a nutshell, you can tell whether something is a story if it has the following characteristics. A story begins with a time marker or a place marker. So when you hear someone say, “A couple of days ago…” or “Last year…” or “A while back…”, then it’s likely to be the beginning of a story. It could also start with a place, like, “We were next to the river…” A story has a series of events connected in a way that infers causality: this happened a couple of days ago, but then that happened, and as a result this happened. A story has people in it who are doing things. It’s a giveaway when you hear dialogue, as dialogue can only be delivered in a story. Finally, in a story, something unanticipated happens. When the audience hears it, they are a little surprised. It’s news to them. With these simple giveaways, you can now spot stories. So what types of stories should you tell? There are three story types and one story technique you should consider using in data storytelling. THE DATA STORY When you have a time series and the data does something unanticipated, then you can tell a story about it – a data story. Here’s an example. From the 1920s to the 1930s in Norway, deaths from heart disease steadily rose.15 Then in 1939 they plummeted and stayed low until 1945, after which they quickly began to rise again. So why would that happen? (Figure 6) Well, in 1939 the Nazis occupied Norway and confiscated all of its livestock, forcing the Norwegians to live off a plant-based diet for the duration of World War II. This diet reversed the death rate from heart disease. When the war ended in 1945, livestock returned and meat and dairy was added back into the Norwegian diet, and heart disease came back. The story about Procter & Gamble and its Pamper strategy is also a data story. The data story typically has this basic structure: • In the past… • Then something happened… • As a result… One of the ways to present a data story is to share a high-level version of the narrative and then ask the audience what they think is happening. This is like presenting the audience with a mystery to be solved and asking them to be the detectives (we love mystery stories16). When they come to the right answer, you can show them the full data story. Now they own the results