Estimates and Confidence
As part of my day job as an Agile Coach in the software development world , I do estimation training with teams ( and also try my best to train managers on how estimations should be used correctly ). Included in the training is what I like to call an “ Exercise exercise ,” which is where I ask everyone to complete their estimated time to cover an escalating series of distances together with their associated confidence and comfort levels .
3 . When running a marathon or longer , I ’ ll break the race down into 10km chunks , as in I ’ ll ‘ forget ’ about the full distance and only focus on the next 10km . ( This is incredibly effective when combined with a Jedi-mind trick where I tell myself that I get ‘ fresh legs ’ every 10km ). I also have a tough “ Four Heinous Hills ” training run , which I break down into each of the hills rather than by distance .
4 . When dealing with something virtual like software development , you can always break items down to very small pieces of fully built , fully tested code . It might take months to cross the finish line and earn your medal by releasing a new product or solution , but you are getting continual feedback on your actual progress by delivering in small chunks . Trying to deliver complex software initiatives in large batches is like running an ultra-marathon without distance boards and route markers .
You can see the results for an “ average ” ultra-runner in the above table . As you ’ d expect , an increase in size ( kilometres , in this case ) results in a drop in average speed , confidence and comfort . Everyone , even if the last time they did any running was when they were forced to do so by a sadistic physical education teacher at school , can provide a one-kilometre estimate , but only experienced runners can give estimates with any degree of confidence for the longer distances . However , even highly experienced ultra-runners will drop their confidence and comfort levels as the distance increases .
After I had run this exercise a few times ( pun definitely intended ), I thought I should see whether the same logic applied to those with better than average running ability . Therefore , I dropped Camille an email and she readily obliged . Her personal bests across the various distances are listed below , and as you can see , it doesn ’ t matter whether you are an average runner or the best ultra-marathoner in the world , as size ( distance ) increases , so speed decreases .
The undisputed king of longevity and consistency at Comrades , Shaun Meiklejohn , earned his 31st silver medal at Comrades 2022
Risk Enters the Race
Another thing we often forget about is that as size increases , so risk increases . There is no one who can stand at the start line of Comrades with 100 % confidence of finishing . In 2019 , Camille herself had to pull out around the halfway mark with a hamstring injury . Another former winner , Shaun Meiklejohn , is the undisputed king of longevity and consistency at Comrades , with the remarkable record of being the only person with over 30 sub-7h30m silver medal finishes . Yet even he had a DNF at the 2018 event , when he tore a hamstring with less than 30 kilometres to go .
Learning Life Lessons
The key lesson here is that if you want to complete the ultra-marathons of life faster , more comfortably and more predictably , then you should break them into smaller chunks . The good news is that most big tasks , even if they look like ultramarathons on face value , can be broken into much smaller deliverables , and unlike an ultra-marathon , you can “ save game ” at continual checkpoints so that you can return to them later . Here are a few practical examples , some of which I recently faced :
1 . I am speaking at a conference in March and estimated I ’ d need to create 30 slides to cover the topic . ‘ Getting out the door ’ to start my 30-slide run seemed daunting . But breaking the task down into sections , and in some case single slides , made completing the slide deck much more manageable . I also received a nice dopamine hit sense of accomplishment each time I finished a slide and could ‘ bank that kilometre .’
2 . I procrastinated terribly over writing this article . It took me weeks to start writing , but when I broke it into sections and tackled a small chunk each time I had a short gap , like “ let me just write about the drinking beer and breaking World Records ,” then the mental writer ’ s block evaporated .
I asked Shaun about the only blip on his Comrades record , and he told me , “ I was on track at 60km for a 6:43 finish , but my hammie had been feeling tight from early on in the race , which was strange , as I had a great build-up and no hint of what was to happen . My hammie tore at Winston Park , and I decided that it was too bad to try push on , so I made the toughest decision ever to call it a day .”
The good news is that very few of the big challenges we face in our personal and professional lives are like running an ultra-marathon – where , like Shaun , you can be on track two-thirds of the way to a record-breaking 30th silver medal finish before tearing a hamstring and getting a “ Did Not Finish .”
As a passionate consumer of quality beer , I naturally included two bottles of Jack Black Lager amongst my energy gels for my next Comrades
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