SPORT MAN
SAYS sport man says by MANFRED SEIDLER
Do All Roads Lead to Tokyo ?
Friday 23 July is supposed to be the start of the greatest sporting extravaganza , albeit postponed by a year , the Olympic Games in Tokyo . However , the billion dollar question is , can the Games go ahead now , and should they ?
Will the 2020 Tokyo Olympics finally take place in 2021 ?
The arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020 put paid to any thought of hosting the scheduled Tokyo Olympics last July , and the Games were postponed until July 2021 . The International Olympic Committee ( IOC ) has categorically stated that if the Games have to be postponed again , they will be cancelled outright .
Of course , at the time of making that statement , the IOC and the local organising committee ( LOC ) in Tokyo were pretty bullish , expecting a vaccine to be available , and participants and the Japanese population at large in the main to be vaccinated . The spin was working overtime , and they reason to be upbeat and confident . After all , vaccines had been developed and were being rolled out globally , and numbers of infections were in decline … until they no longer were . In particular , in the host city , Tokyo , and the host nation , Japan .
Now many athletes are wondering what to do . As recently as 1 May , Gerda Steyn was telling me she was not sure if she should race the Nedbank Runified Breaking Barriers 50km IAU World Record Attempt in Gqeberha on 23 May . At the heart of that question was the quite loudly spoken thought that the Games would be cancelled . Again . And if they were to be cancelled , but she didn ’ t race in Gqeberha , she would lose out on much-needed prize money . This is a dilemma facing every athlete .
Cancel or Postpone
In the last two months , the overriding feeling in Japan has climbed from 60 % of the population saying they don ’ t want the Games to go ahead now , to 80 % saying no , with the Japanese medical sector amongst the strongest voices in not wanting the Games to take place there this year .
Meanwhile , four test events were held at the beginning of May , with a total of 700 athletes and over 6000 event staff involved in the International Volleyball Games ( 1-2 May ), FINA Diving World Cup ( 1-6 May ), Hokkaido Sapporo Marathon Festival ( 5 May ) and the READY , STEADY TOKYO Athletics Meet on 9 May . All the venues used are the actual Venues being used for the Games . ( See Side Bar for stats breakdown ). Of the almost 7000 people involved , only one COVID Positive has been returned .
Also , the Japanese Association of Athletics Federations ( JAAF ) compiled a study of athletics meets from 1 April 2020 to 31 March 2021 , looking at COVID-19 positives recorded after 1044 track meets and 74 road races . There were 568,271 participants and
The Olympic Stadium is ready to host athletics in July , if the Games go ahead
147,942 officials involved in these track events , and 25,936 runners with 8240 officials in the road events , and from the total of 750,389 participants and officials at these 1118 events , only two COVID-19 positives were recorded , one from each of the sectors .
However , let ’ s be clear here : This study doesn ’ t show that track and field events or road races do not pose a risk of infections . What they do show is that outdoor events pose no risk . It ’ s also important to note is that more than 50 % of these events had no spectators .
Vaccination Roll-out
As many as 75 % of the prospective residents of the Olympic Village have been vaccinated , as national Olympic bodies around the world are vaccinating their athletes that have been selected to go to the Games . This includes coaches , and even journalists are being vaccinated by the NOC ’ s . But the questions remain …
Can a safe and secure Olympic Games be held in July ? Definitely . There is ample evidence from events around the world that have been successfully held with no COVID-19 positives reported .
Can the IOC and the LOC can afford not to go ahead with the Games ? Already , the postponement of the Games has increased the bill by over $ 16 billion . If the Games were to be cancelled again , the loss of revenue would be astronomical . Could the LOC and the IOC recover from that ? Perhaps , but it would take a long , long time !
Can the Tokyo Government afford to let the Games go ahead ? That is the real ‘ billion dollar question .’ The public has spoken … they do not want the Games . To understand their feelings , think about it this way : If Johannesburg , or Cape Town , or any other City in South Africa was scheduled to host the Games , would you , as a South African , want to see them take place ?
That is the difficult question to answer right now . Can the Games happen safely and securely ? Absolutely . But should they happen ? The Japanese do not think so . Will they take place ? I cannot see them not happening .
Images : Courtesy Tokyo Olympics
About the Author
Manfred Seidler is a freelance sport journalist who has been in the industry since 1994 , in both print media and broadcasting , covering four Olympic Games for SABC Radio , and producing various athletics shows for the SABC . Follow him on Twitter : @ sportmansa ; Facebook : Sport Man SA ; Instagram : sportman _ sa .
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